German scientists probing global warming said Friday they had detected a major temperature rise this year in the Arctic Ocean and linked this to a progressive shrinking of the region's sea ice.

Temperatures recorded this year in the upper 500 metres (1,625 feet) of sea in the Fram Strait -- the gap between Greenland and the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen -- were up to 0.6 C (1.08 F) higher than in 2003, they said in a press release received here.

The rise was detectable to a water depth of 2,000 metres (6,500 feet), "representing an exceptionally strong signal by ocean standards," it said.

The experts, from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, have been recording temperatures aboard a specialised vessel, Polarstern (Pole Star), for the past six weeks. [...]

The institute said water in the Fram Strait has been warming steadily since 1990 and over the past three years, satellite images had documented "a clear recession" of sea ice edges, both in the strait and the Barents Sea.

The latest data "point towards a further warming tendency," the institute said.

In June, a UN organisation announced that American scientists had detected an "alarmingly rapid growth" this year in airborne concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the fossil-fuel pollutant blamed for global warming.

CO2 levels recorded in March 2004 at Hawaii measured 379 parts per million (ppm), an increase of three ppm over the previous year.
By comparison, there had been an annual increase of only 1.8 ppm over the past decade. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 before the Industrial Revolution were 280 ppm.

The June announcement was made at a conference on renewable energies in Bonn by Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -- the United Nations' paramount environment accord.

CO2 is the most important of the six "greenhouse" gases blamed for driving changes to the world's delicate climate system.

These gases hang like an invisible shroud in the atmosphere, trapping the Sun's heat and inflicting what many scientists predict will be serious changes to icecaps, glaciers and weather patterns.

In the Earth's distant past, climate change has occurred naturally, by emissions of CO2 disgorged by volcanoes and other phenomena.

But the overwhelming majority of climate experts say CO2 levels are rising fast today because of the unbridled burning of oil, gas and coal.

Opinions differ, though, as to how fast the effects will occur and how bad they will be.

If you are planning to climb Mount Everest, better hurry because a Chinese survey has revealed that it is shrinking.

The world's highest peak, Mt Everest, is gradually loosing its height -- nearly 0.1metre annually -- due to global warming and shrinking of glaciers in the Himalayan region, the survey says.

The mountaintop declined by 1.3metres in the 33 years ending 1999, down from 8,849.75 to 8,848.45metres, according to a scientific survey released at a recent international symposium on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau held in Lhasa, capital of Tibet.

The 1966-1975 drop, was about 0.1metre per year. The falling speed reduced to 0.01metre between 1975 and 1992 and again accelerated to nearly 0.1metre from 1992 to 1998, Xinhua news agency reported on Tuesday night, quoting the findings of the survey.

Though the exact thickness of snow atop Mt Everest (Qomolangma in Chinese) remains a mystery, an Italian mountaineering team estimated it at not less than 2.5metres. Global warming accelerates the process of conversion from soft snow to ice. [...]

Good rains in recent days have failed to head off warnings of a possible El Nino weather phenomenon hitting eastern Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology today said there were growing signs that farm regions would be hit by below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in coming months.

It came as another 1,000 farmers in southern NSW and the ACT qualified for drought assistance and warnings from Agriculture Minister Warren Truss of an approaching dry.

Many parts of Australia are still recovering from the 2002 drought, with the livestock sector not expected to be fully over the big dry for another five years.

El Nino weather patterns are normally associated with drought in Australia.

The bureau, in its latest forecast, said more than half of all international computer models now pointed towards the return of El Nino in the near future.

There are signs of weakening trade winds across the central Pacific Ocean, which in turn are normally associated with triggering an El Nino.

"Even in the absence of a clearly defined El Nino event, a warmer-than-average central Pacific at this time of year is sufficient to increase the risk of areas of below-average rainfall and above average temperatures persisting in parts of eastern Australia," it said.

MIAMI (AFP) - Florida raised the alert as Hurricane Frances lashed the Bahamas and barreled closer to the southeastern US state forcing massive evacuations.

Most of Florida's Atlantic coast was placed under a hurricane warning, which means the huge storm could slam within 24 hours into the state that is still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Charley earlier this month.

"Dangerous Hurricane Frances (is) heading to Florida," the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) said as the storm raged over the Bahamas with sustained winds of 230 kilometers (135 miles) per hour and higher gusts.

A hurricane warning was discontinued for the Turks and Caicos islands, where ferocious winds on Wednesday damaged roofs, uprooted trees, caused power outages and downed telephone lines.

The storm pounded the southeastern Bahamas early Thursday and was expected to be near or over the center of the group of islands later in the day.

Its projected track then takes it to south Florida.

At 11:00 am (1500 GMT), the eye of the storm was 90 kilometers (55 miles) southeast of San Salvador, Bahamas and 725 kilometers (450 miles) of south Florida's east coast.

Hurricane-force winds extended 130 kilometers (80 miles) from the center of the storm, which was moving west-northwest at 20 kilometers (13 miles) per hour.

NHC forecaster Stacy Steward warned that the Bahamian islands of Eleuthera and Grand Bahama could expect "storm-surge flooding of six to 14 feet (two to seven meters) above normal tide levels, ... along with large and dangerous battering waves."

As residents of the Bahamian islands battened down, Florida braced for the new storm.

"This is going to happen," said Jim Lushine, the US National Weather Service's severe weather expert for South Florida. "It looks like the east coast of Florida will get slammed by a big storm. The wind is going to shake their world."

In Palm Beach County, 300,000 residents were told to evacuate their homes and schools there and in other parts of south Florida were ordered closed.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency and stressed: "We are prepared, we will respond and we will recover."

While some forecasts have the hurricane slamming into Georgia or South Carolina or heading into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, the main NHC forecast track has it hitting Florida.

"This is going to be, if this storm makes landfall in Florida, a very large, a very dangerous storm. We're going to have a lot of people in harm's way." Florida Emergency Management Director Craig Fugate said.

Florida is still recovering from the death and destruction wrought by Hurricane Charley in southwestern parts of the state.

The eventual hurricane track will depend largely on a ridge of high pressure just north of the storm. If that system remains where it is and maintains its strength, "it will be a Florida hurricane," said NHC director Max Mayfield.

Several cruise ships diverted from their initial course to steer clear of the storm.

Across South Florida, residents lined up to buy emergency supplies, including plywood to board up windows, bottled water and flashlights. Stores struggled to keep up with demand, particularly for water and batteries, while many hotels away from the coast were full.

In downtown Miami, office buildings started shutting down in readiness for the storm.

"We can't control the kind of damage that Frances is going to cause, but if people are smart, lives can be saved," said Max Mayfield, the NHC director.

Comment: Referring to a page on the National Weather Service site, we noticed that the years of WW II had the highest number of hurricanes since records were first kept. It is rather interesting that, while America was at war, it was getting some serious hits from the weather.

Lately, the US has been pummeled by a lot of severe weather...

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. - More than a million people threatened by Hurricane Frances were told to clear out Thursday, and residents scrambled to board up homes and stock up on water ahead of what could be Florida's mightiest storm in a decade.

A hurricane warning covered much of the state's eastern coast — about 300 miles from Florida City, near the state's southern tip, to Flagler Beach, north of Daytona Beach.

The warning meant hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph were likely by midmorning Friday — three weeks after Hurricane Charley, another Category 4 storm, raked the state's western coast with 145 mph wind, causing billions of dollars in damage and killing 27 people.

Most of the 1.2 million residents who were told to leave were in South Florida — 300,000 in Palm Beach County, 250,000 in Broward County and 320,000 in Miami-Dade County. To the north, Brevard County told 185,000 residents to leave, and Volusia County told 120,000.

States of emergency were declared in Florida and Georgia.

NEW YORK - With Hurricane Frances barreling toward Florida, anxious Florida delegates examined weather reports and some began packing their bags for home.

"We're still cleaning up from the last one," sighed Nancy Patterson, a delegate from Orlando, where Hurricane Charley earlier this month knocked out power for nine days.

At a breakfast Wednesday, Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings urged the Florida delegates to consider leaving before the convention ends Thursday night. Frances is expected to hit Florida's eastern coast as early as Friday night.

But Carole and John Parsons of Palm Beach County said while the new storm makes them nervous, they don't want to miss the highlight of the convention — President Bush's acceptance speech Thursday night.

"I want to stay here through the whole thing ... but I'm real worried about getting down there," said Carole Parsons, whose husband is a delegate.

RICHMOND, Va. - Residents of a neighborhood still cordoned off because of flood damage from Tropical Storm Gaston's remnants visited their homes to retrieve what belongings of theirs remained.

"It looks like Armageddon," 31-year-old Tonya Entzminger said after police escorted her to her muddied first-floor apartment to retrieve some essentials. "I'm lucky to be alive."

The storm moved through Monday, dropping more than a foot of rain on Richmond. Three more bodies were found Wednesday, bringing the death toll to eight. About 350 homes and more than 230 businesses were damaged or destroyed in the region, and damage in Richmond was preliminarily put at $15 million, a figure the city said is likely to rise.

Entzminger's apartment in the historical Shockoe Bottom section of the city was within the 20-block section that remained closed until officials can inspect the buildings for structural damage. Once that's done, cleanup and restoration could begin "in a day or so," City Manager Calvin Jamison said.

Entzminger, one of many who took advantage of police and fire escorts to get into her apartment, retrieved an armful of clothes, a mesh bag containing shoes, her cell phone and a purse. She came away stunned by the destruction, not having thought much of the alarm that sent her rushing into the street Monday night.

"I thought maybe it was a prank and figured I would be out there about 20 minutes, but the water was already knee-high," she said.

When she tried to go back inside, she found her refrigerator had floated across the apartment and blocked the front door, requiring three men to move it. Her car was later found stacked with two others.

Heavy rain from remnants of tropical storm Gaston caused a sinkhole in Richmond, VA. (Times-Dispatch/Mark Gorman)

The rain washed out roads and bridges and sent a torrent of water into the low-lying district, closing restaurants, bars and old tobacco warehouses converted into condos and apartments.

The governor, who viewed the flood-ravaged area on Tuesday, asked President Bush for a federal disaster declaration for the cities of Richmond, Hopewell, Colonial Heights and Petersburg, and the counties of Chesterfield, Dinwiddie, Hanover, Henrico and Prince George.

Jamison said inspectors had already condemned 19 buildings, and electricity to 70 buildings was disconnected because of damaged systems.

"The magnitude of a storm of this level you can't imagine until you have to go in and clean up," he said. "They're going to rebuild, and the city is going to be stronger than it is now. That's our track record."

Three more deaths were confirmed Wednesday, officials said. In suburban Henrico County, police found the body of a woman who apparently was swept away by floodwaters after abandoning her car. In Dinwiddie County south of Richmond, a person had been carried away by rushing water during an attempted rescue. In Richmond, a man's body was found in Broad Rock Creek.

More than 100 roads remained closed, the state Transportation Department said, and another 40 Richmond streets that remained blocked. At least six bridges were washed out.

"There may be a few more, but until the water recedes, we're not going to know," state Transportation spokeswoman Linda South said. "That's how bad it is out there."

A Reader Comments: Approximately 14 inches of rain in less than twelve hours creating 2-3 foot waves in some sections of town. I used to live in Richmond and I've never seen anything like that in my life, there or anywhere else. I've been through floods, hurricanes, and blizzards...and this was a weak storm...

The smudges of dark blue on this Envisat-derived ozone forecast trace the start of what has unfortunately become an annual event: the opening of the ozone hole above the South Pole.

"Ever since this phenomenon was first discovered in the mid-1980s, satellites have served as an important means of monitoring it," explained José Achache, ESA Director of Earth Observation Programmes. "ESA satellites have been routinely observing stratospheric ozone concentrations for the last decade.

"And because Envisat's observations are assimilated into atmospheric models, they actually serve as the basis of an operational ozone forecasting service. These models predict the ozone hole is in the process of opening this week."

Envisat data show 2004's ozone hole is appearing about two weeks later than last year's, but at a similar time period to the average during the last decade. The precise time and range of Antarctic ozone hole occurrences are determined by regional meteorological variations.

AMIDON, N.D. - A fire in the Badlands burned about 4,000 acres and sent flames 80 feet into the air Thursday, and fire officials feared the blaze could quickly grow because of high winds and drought conditions.

"We have a very serious fire here," Forest Service spokeswoman Colleen Reinke said. "The fire weather is expected to be very severe today. It is zero percent contained."

"In the worst-case scenario, this has the potential to go to 10,000 acres," she said.

The fire, burning in a sparsely populated area full of dry grass and timber in southwestern North Dakota, began Wednesday afternoon. The fire was caused by people, although the exact cause was under investigation, said Ron Jablonski, a ranger for the U.S. Forest Service. [...]

MELBOURNE, Fla. (AP) - Bracing for a monstrous storm, residents and tourists clogged shelters or made last-minute preparations Friday as Hurricane Frances churned toward the Atlantic coast, where the state's second pummeling in three weeks could begin as soon as Saturday. About 2.5 million residents were ordered to evacuate - the largest number in state history.

The slow-moving storm's core was now expected to hit Florida Saturday afternoon or evening, instead of early Saturday as had been earlier predicted.

Frances had weakened Friday into a strong Category 3 storm packing 120 mph winds and the potential to push ashore waves up to 14 feet high. Its top sustained winds were down from about 145 mph on Thursday, but forecasters said the weakening could be fluctuation typical with large storms and Frances could regain its former strength.

If it did, it could be the worst storm to hit the state since Andrew in 1992. [...]

(CNN) -- As Hurricane Frances bears down on the United States, weather trackers are sounding the alarm. Yet Frances may only be the first in a series of large, powerful storms to march across the Atlantic in coming years.

The arrival of hurricanes like Charley and Frances within weeks of each other is a rare anomaly, but some meteorologists say more storms like Frances -- both very intense and very large -- are possible.

"Over the past few years, we've seen an increasing trend toward greater activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased strength in storms," said Marshall Shepherd, a research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "[That] has been leading us to believe that we are going to start seeing more intense hurricanes. That may be bearing itself out right now."

A combination of natural cycles and warming ocean temperatures from global warming may be fueling the destructive storms. Scientists like Shepherd employ an array of satellites, aircraft and computer models to answer those questions in their mission to comprehend the Earth's climate. [...]

Disaster coordinators still advise those in the potential path of many hurricanes to evacuate. Although measures can be taken to secure property, little can be done against the worst hurricane winds that can exceed 150 mph and send floodwaters many miles inland.

"[With] enough money, you can build buildings resistant against the wind," said Andy Coburn, associate director of the Duke University program for the study of developed shorelines. "The force of water is completely different. We don't have the technology or the economic feasibility that can withstand the forces of moving water."

America's infatuation with coasts, and the dense population centers on the Eastern Seaboard, mean that it will not escape hurricanes' wrath. If storm intensity and frequency pick up, the country could be in for a wild ride.

Coburn offered only one solution. "Get the hell out of the way," he said.

(CNN) -- As Hurricane Frances bears down on the United States, weather trackers are sounding the alarm. Yet Frances may only be the first in a series of large, powerful storms to march across the Atlantic in coming years.

The arrival of hurricanes like Charley and Frances within weeks of each other is a rare anomaly, but some meteorologists say more storms like Frances -- both very intense and very large -- are possible.

"Over the past few years, we've seen an increasing trend toward greater activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased strength in storms," said Marshall Shepherd, a research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "[That] has been leading us to believe that we are going to start seeing more intense hurricanes. That may be bearing itself out right now."

A combination of natural cycles and warming ocean temperatures from global warming may be fueling the destructive storms.

STUART, Fla. (AP) - Hurricane Frances crashed ashore at Florida's east coast early Sunday with sustained wind of 105 mph and pelting rain, knocking out power to 2 million people and forcing Floridians to endure a frightening night amid roaring gales that shredded roofs and uprooted trees.

The National Hurricane Center said the eye of the hurricane officially made landfall near Sewall's Point, just east of Stuart - about 40 miles north of West Palm Beach - at about 1 a.m.

Transformers popped along streets, sending sparks into darkened skies, as families huddled in shelters, bathrooms and hotel lobbies. The wind-whipped coastal waters resembled a churning hot tub.

In Melbourne, 65 miles north of Stuart, the wind and rain looked like a giant fire hose going off at full blast.

"I've never seen anything like this, and no one in my family has," said Darlene Munson, who was riding out the storm with family members at her Melbourne restaurant.

The storm's slow-motion assault - Frances was crawling at just 8 mph - came more than a day later than predicted. The western portion of the hurricane's eye crept over parts of the east-central Florida coast Saturday night, with its strongest winds hitting early Sunday.

"Those folks are getting pounded, and they've got worse to come," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.

A hurricane warning remained in effect for nearly 300 miles along Florida's east coast, from Florida City north to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee.

A continued slow west-northwestward motion was expected to move the entire eye of the hurricane inland by sunrise, the weather service said.

Maximum sustained wind was near 105 mph with higher gusts. There was little chance of strengthening before the eastern half of the eye moved inland, the weather service said.

Hurricane force winds extended up to 85 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds, which range from 39 mph to 73 mph, extended up to 200 miles.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, were expected near and to the north of Stuart. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels was expected in Lake Okeechobee.

Florida Power & Light, the state's largest electric company, said power outages to its customers affected 2 million people. Nearly all of Vero Beach, 30 miles north of Stuart, was blackened, the city's utility said.

In Martin County, where Stuart is located, 630 people taking shelter at a school had to move to another shelter when part of the roof blew off, flooding 16 rooms. More than 300 people were able to remain in the school.

Four people were hospitalized in Boynton Beach after breathing carbon monoxide fumes from a generator that was running in a house. No other injuries were immediately reported.

En route, Frances shattered windows, toppled power lines and flooded neighborhoods in the Bahamas, driving thousands from their homes. The Freeport airport was partially submerged in water. At least two deaths in the Bahamas were blamed on the storm.
For many Floridians, this would be a night to remember.

Mary Beth and Jack Stiglin, evacuees from nearby Hutchinson Island, sat in their hotel room in Fort Pierce, eating ham and cheese wraps by candlelight as the power lines outside their room sparked and died.

"It's a little romantic. I brought the roses from our garden because they would have been blown away anyway," Mary Beth Stiglin said.

Frances' arrival came three weeks after Hurricane Charley killed 27 people and caused billions of dollars in damage in southwestern Florida.

For some Floridians, the second storm couldn't arrive soon enough.
"I just want it to be quick. Just get it over with," said Woodeline Jadis, 20, tired of waiting at a shelter in Orlando.

The storm's leading edge pounded the Florida coast early Saturday. Frances was so big that virtually the entire state feared damage from wind and water. Forecasters said the storm would dump 8 to 12 inches of rain, with up to 20 inches in some areas.

"This is the time to show some resolve and not be impatient," Gov. Jeb Bush said. "This is a dangerous, dangerous storm."

In Washington, President Bush declared a major disaster in the counties affected by Frances, meaning residents will be eligible for federal aid.

The largest evacuation in state history, with 2.8 million residents ordered inland, sent 80,000 residents and tourists into shelters. The storm shut down much of Florida, including airports and amusement parks, at the start of the usually busy Labor Day weekend.

Some evacuees, frustrated by Frances' sluggish pace, decided to leave shelters Saturday and return later.

Deborah Nicholas dashed home from a Fort Pierce shelter to take a shower, but stayed only a few minutes when the lights started flickering and trees began popping out of the ground. She has slept in a deck chair at a high school cafeteria since Wednesday.

"I'm going stir crazy," Nicholas said. "I'm going to be in a straitjacket by Monday. I don't know how much longer I can take it. Have mercy."

Residents could take comfort that Frances weakened as it lingered off the coast. Forecasters downgraded it to a Category 2 hurricane as sustained winds receded to 105 mph, down from 145 mph earlier. But the heavy rain forecast still threatened to cause widespread flooding, and the outer bands of the storm packed plenty of punch.

In Palm Bay, winds pried off pieces of a banquet hall roof, striking some cars in the parking lot. Trees were bent and light posts wobbled in the howling gusts.

In Fort Pierce, the storm shredded awnings and blew out business signs. Many downtown streets were crisscrossed with toppled palm trees.

One gust reached 115 mph at Fort Pierce, according to the National Hurricane Center, damaging the mast of a truck measuring the storm's intensity. Florida Power & Light pulled crews off the streets because of heavy wind, meaning those without power would have to wait until the storm subsided, utility spokesman Bill Swank said.

In Stuart, traffic lights dangled, and one hung by a single wire. Downed trees blocked at least one residential street, and signposts were bent to the ground. The facade at a flooring store collapsed, as did the roof of a storage shed at a car dealership.

Roads, streets and beaches were mostly deserted - the occasional surfer notwithstanding. Roads were littered with palm fronds and other debris. Businesses were shuttered and even gas stations were closed, their empty pumps covered with shrink wrap.

Not everyone stayed home: Two men were charged with looting for trying to break into a Brevard County church.

As the weather worsened, a yacht adrift on the Intercoastal Waterway struggled for more than half an hour in choppy water to anchor in West Palm Beach before tying up to a dock. Other boats bobbed like toys. A U.S. Coast Guard helicopter rescued a man and his cat riding out the storm on a sailboat anchored in Biscayne Bay.

At Palm Beach International Airport, the roof and a door were blown off a hangar.

The storm extended vacations for about 10,000 passengers on nine cruise ships unable return to Florida ports on schedule. They were expected to arrive late Sunday or Monday.

Kevin Palmer, a photographer in Palm Beach County, said the wind blew so hard at his front door that it was making the copper weather stripping around it vibrate and shriek violently.

"It's become our high-gust alarm," Palmer said. "It sets the tone for your ambiance when you've got the rumbling outside, you have this screeching from the weather stripping and you keep wondering if that thumping you just heard is another tree going over or a coconut going flying."

Frances was expected to push across the state as a tropical storm just north of Tampa, weaken to a tropical depression and drench the Panhandle on Monday before moving into Alabama.

In the central Atlantic Ocean, the ninth named storm of the season grew stronger Saturday. Tropical Storm Ivan was about 1,355 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles with winds of 70 mph. Forecasters expect Ivan to become a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph on Sunday and to continue to strengthen.

STUART, United States (AFP) - Tropical storm Frances killed two as it crossed Florida, authorities said, as yet another hurricane loomed in the far distance.

The deaths occurred Sunday in the city of Gainesville in north-central Florida, 386 kilometers (240 miles) northwest of Stuart, which lies on the state's hard-hit Atlantic coast.

A man died when he lost control of his car and hit a tree, and a woman was killed when an oak tree fell on her mobile home, Captain Beth Hardee of Alachua County Fire and Rescue said.

Their deaths bring the total storm toll to four thus far. Two people died in the Bahamas when Hurricane Frances battered the Atlantic island chain for more than 30 hours Thursday and Friday.

Gainesville was still under driving rain and high gusting wind early Monday, some 22 hours after the storm first entered the area, Hardee said.

"I've lived in Florida all my life and I've never experienced a storm like this," she said.

The remnants of the eye of Frances have moved off Florida's west coast, but "it's trying to reform. It could build up strength again" over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. [...]

But Florida, which is barely recovering from the devastation wrought last month by Hurricane Charley, was warily eyeing yet another hurricane, which loomed on the far horizon.

Hurricane Ivan, a dangerous Category 4 storm packing maximum sustained winds of nearly 215 kilometers (135 miles) per hour, was a thousand kilometers away, but long-term forecasts put it dangerously close to the US state by the end of the week.

Early Monday, Ivan was 1,010 kilometers (625 miles) east-southeast of Barbados, which issued a hurricane watch.

As Ivan headed toward the Caribbean windward islands, Frances lost steam as it crossed Florida, though forecasters said it could regain hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. [...]

An international scientific team which has been drilling beneath the bed of the Arctic Ocean says it enjoyed a sub-tropical climate 55 million years ago.

The Arctic Coring Expedition (Acex) has recovered sediment cores from nearly 400m (1,300ft) below the sea floor.

It says fossilised algae in the cores show the sea temperature was once about 20C, instead of the average now, -1.5C.

The expedition, which has relied on three icebreakers during its work, is now heading back to Tromso in Norway.

Unlocking the Arctic's history

The scientists, from eight nations, recovered the cores from below the sea floor in waters 1,300m (4,260ft) deep.

Acex has been taking cores from the Lomonosov Ridge between Siberia and Greenland. The ridge, 1,500km (930 miles) long, rises to 800m (2,625ft) below sea level and is topped by 450m (1,475ft) of layered sediments.

The scientists said before they set sail from Tromso last month their findings would help science to work out how long the Arctic sea ice, now in retreat, had persisted.

The cores they have extracted show the Arctic Ocean was once a subtropical, shallow sea. The evidence, Acex says, is in the form of tiny algal fossils found in the cores, which were once marine plants and animals.

They date back to a period known as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, a brief period that occurred around 55m years ago.

Huge die-off

It was characterized by an extremely warm climate that created a natural greenhouse effect, which caused massive amounts of carbon to be deposited in both sea and air Atmospheric carbon levels then are thought to have been about 2-3,000 parts per million (ppm), compared with almost 380 ppm today.

The algae found in the Lomonosov cores, which lived only in subtropical conditions, prove how warm the Arctic once was, Acex says. It says the ocean's temperature was once similar to the waters off New York in August.

Dr Michael Kaminski, a palaeontologist from University College London, UK, said: "We're seeing a mass extinction of sea-bottom-living organisms caused by these conditions.

"Moving forward in time, we see many species disappear. Only a few hardy survivors endure the thermal maximum."

There is also evidence that part of the Arctic Ocean was once a freshwater lake, probably when the Lomonosov Ridge was part of what is now Siberia.

The last 250,000 years of Arctic history were known already in some detail thanks to cores taken from the Greenland ice cap.

Coping with Nature

But Professor Jan Backman of Stockholm University, one of the two chief scientists of Acex, said: "We now have sediment records going back to 56m years, which are resting on 80-million-year-old bedrock.

"The early history of the Arctic Basin will be re-evaluated based on the scientific results collected on this expedition."

Acex has had to contend with natural hazards, including an ice shelf up to 10m (33ft) thick which threatened drilling operations before a Russian icebreaker demolished it.

The drilling ship was also approached by two polar bears, capable of climbing over its low sides, and had to scare them off by sounding its hooter.

The Acex scientists are to meet again in November at the University of Bremen in Germany to examine the data.

Acex is part of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) and is conducted by the European Consortium for Ocean Research Drilling.

A group of European scientific institutions, Ecord Science Operator, is responsible for fleet management, ice and weather monitoring, and science operations.

The British Geological Survey co-ordinates Ecord Science Operator, and the Natural Environment Research Council is a member of IODP.

Comment: So if the North Pole was subtropical, then either the sun has changed its position or the earth has been jolted. There are many traditions from the world over that talk about a pole shift, not merely a shift in the magnetic pole, but a changing of the position of the earth. There are traditions that say the earth was once upright on its axis, rather than being inclined at 23 degrees as it is today.

What might make the earth jump like this?

If it happened once, might it happen again?

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada - Hurricane Ivan grew into the deadliest of storms overnight Thursday, packing winds of 160 mph as it made a beeline for Jamaica after pummeling Grenada, Barbados and other islands, causing at least 15 deaths.

As dazed survivors emerged from half-destroyed homes in Grenada — where at least 12 people were killed and 90 percent of the 100,000 islanders' homes were damaged — Jamaican leader P.J. Patterson urged his people to pray.

"We have to prepare for the worst case scenario. Let us pray for God's care," Patterson said Wednesday night. "This is a time that we must demonstrate that we are indeed our brothers' and sisters' keeper."

The most dangerous storm to hit the Caribbean in years already pummeled Barbados and other islands Tuesday before setting its deadly winds and rains, blamed for three other fatalities in Barbados, Tobago and Venezuela, on a course projected to take it directly over Jamaica, Cuba and into the heart of the hurricane-weary southern United States.

The storm strengthened early Thursday to become a Category 5 on a scale of 5. It packed sustained winds of 160 mph with higher gusts as it passed north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. [...]

MIAMI - Tourists and residents were told Thursday to leave the Florida Keys to avoid mighty Hurricane Ivan, even as Floridians still struggled with the destruction and misery left by Hurricanes Frances and Charley.

Forecasters said Ivan — which strengthened early Thursday to 160 mph — could reach the island chain as early as Sunday, making it the third hurricane to hit Florida in a month.

Charley struck southwest Florida on Aug. 13 with wind of 145 mph, causing an estimated $6.8 billion in damage and 27 deaths. Frances hit the state's eastern coast early Sunday with 105 mph wind, leaving $2 billion to $4 billion in insured damage and at least 15 dead in the state.

Ivan has already killed at least 15 people as it tears through the Caribbean, the most powerful hurricane to hit there in a decade. Ninety percent of the homes in Grenada were damaged, looting erupted and a prison was destroyed, leaving criminals on the loose.

At 8 a.m., Ivan's center was about 455 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. It had top sustained winds of 160 mph.

National Hurricane Center forecasters predict that Ivan could hit the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 131 to 155 mph, late Sunday or early Monday. [...]

Remnants of Frances continued to create problems Thursday.

In Ohio, where up to 7 inches of rain fell, two deaths were attributed to the storm. In Asheville, N.C., tens of thousands of people remained without drinking water early Thursday after a major water line from a reservoir washed out. [...]

The death toll from Typhoon Songda rose to 31 Wednesday, with at least 14 people still missing and more than 900 injured mainly in Hokkaido and western Japan. [...]

Hokkaido felt the full force of the typhoon, the agency said. The city of
Sapporo experienced winds of up to 180 kph before noon. [...]

Airlines canceled 106 domestic flights and two international flights Wednesday, affecting more than 14,000 passengers. On Tuesday, 82 domestic flights and two international flights were scrubbed, affecting nearly 13,000 travelers.

Songda is the seventh typhoon to land on Japan proper this year, breaking the record of six in a single season. [...]

Songda followed close behind Typhoon Chaba, which left at least 13 people in Japan dead, and Megi, which killed at least 10.

KEY WEST, Florida (AP) -- Before Florida could catch a breath from a furious hurricane double-whammy, residents of the Keys were sent scurrying under new evacuation orders Friday as yet another powerful storm was taking aim at the state.

In South Florida, long lines reappeared at gas stations while shoppers snapped up hurricane supplies at home building stores and supermarkets in preparation for the possibility of a third strike in a month -- this time by Hurricane Ivan, which forecasters said could slam Florida's narrow island chain as early as Monday. The state has not been hit by three hurricanes in a single season since 1964.

Still busied with recovery efforts from hurricanes Frances and Charley, Gov. Jeb Bush said workers would redouble their around-the-clock efforts. "We're not worried about hurricane amnesia anymore," he said. "We're worried about hurricane anxiety." [...]

Comment: The focus of Bush's theft of the 2000 election was in Florida. The 2004 election approaches, and the state is slammed by three hurricanes in a row. Coincidence? We think not.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A mild El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean, climate experts said Friday. El Ninos can affect weather in other areas, sometimes worldwide.

"El Nino conditions have developed in the central tropical Pacific and are expected to last through early 2005," Jim Laver, director of the federal Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

These conditions occur when ocean waters become warmer than normal for the area, causing an increase in cloudiness and affecting air pressure and winds as well. [...]

The climate scientists said sea surface temperatures were more than 0.5 degrees Celsius (1 degree Fahrenheit) above average in the central and western equatorial Pacific during August 2004, the third month of warmer-than-normal readings.

While the current warming indicates the early stages of an El Nino, the conditions have not spread ocean wide, which means it is likely to be weaker than the 1997-1998 event, the agency said.

El Ninos occur about every four to five years and can last up to 12 to 18 months. The effects can range from drought in Indonesia, Australia and Africa, to storms in California and floods elsewhere.

The 1997-98 El Nino caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide.

Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal.

Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below-average activity.

They add the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet.

If Hurricane Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year.

And September and October tend to be among the most-active months of the six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30.

"The season is still young," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. "It certainly seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has been predicted.

"The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more often in the last few years," Mayfield said.

Research Goldenberg conducted with NOAA scientist Chris Landsea, private expert William Gray and others found distinct patterns of low-activity hurricane periods and high-activity periods, each of which endured for decades.

One period of "hyperactivity" ended in 1970 and was followed by a 24-year lull.

The new period of heightened activity began in 1995 and could last for another 10 to 30 years, according to Goldenberg's report, which was peer-reviewed and published in 2001 in the prestigious journal Science.

Disastrous weather is set to continue for at least another six months, it was officially announced yesterday, as Hurricane Ivan headed for the Cayman Islands and Cuba after leaving at least eight people dead in Jamaica.

The US government confirmed that a new El Niño is about to strike, bringing torrential rain and droughts around the world. Meanwhile, Ivan developed winds of 155mph. Jamaica escaped a direct hit, but still suffered extensive damage. So far, at least 34 people have lost their lives, mostly in Grenada.

Over the next two days both Tony Blair and Michael Howard - in an unprecedented double act - will make major speeches describing climate change as one of the greatest threats facing civilisation. They will set out programmes for combating global warming, and call for the rapid development of clean, renewable sources of energy.

Niños usually kill more people worldwide even than bad hurricane years, and the announcement by the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) presages more natural and human disasters stretching at least into the early months of next year.

"El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to last through early 2005," said Jim Laver, director of the Noaa's Climate Prediction Centre.

During an El Niño, warm water flows eastwards across the Pacific, bringing heavy rain to the US West Coast and most of Central and South America. By contrast Australia, Indonesia and parts of north-east and southern Africa usually suffer drought. Europe is relatively unaffected.

The last big El Niño in 1997-98 cost hundreds of lives and caused $34bn (£19bn) in damage worldwide, partly through flooding to Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia and partly through failing harvests in Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia. A more recent, milder one in 2002-03 caused the worst Australian drought in a century.

Comment: Well, that's interesting. Yesterday, we ran an article from CNN that mentioned that the estimated worldwide damage from the 1997-98 El Niño was only $20 billion...

So far, the new one looks more like 2002-03 than 1997-98 but climatologists stress that all are different. The oceanic phenomena, like hurricanes, are growing more frequent. Research suggests that they are occurring nearly three times as often as 300 years ago, and some scientists believe that there is a link with global warming. [...]

Comment: El Niño's aren't the only weather phenomenon that seems to be escalating...

Another week, another hurricane. Is this year unprecedented?

Just about. The only time on record that anything like this happened before was in 1947, when two hurricanes and one tropical storm hit Florida within five weeks. In the 38 years since 1966 only one hurricane - Andrew in 1992 - hit the state before last month.

Anything else?

Yes, since you ask. August saw a record number of tropical storms so big that they were given names. Eight of them. And the US suffered 173 tornadoes last month, easily outstripping the previous record of 128.

Is this the end of it?

Unlikely. Friday marked the half-way point in the hurricane season. Prof William Gray of Colorado State University, one of the world's top hurricane forecasters, predicts at least one more this month. But he foresees a quiet October, partly because another disturbance - El Niño - is gathering pace in the Pacific, and this tends to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Haven't there been rather a lot of hurricanes over the last few years?

Yes, indeed. The years since 1995 have been the worst on record. And experts predict it will go on for decades more.

What's going on?

A combination of factors must combine to make a hurricane. These include thunderstorms, distance from the Equator, and particular wind conditions. But one of the most vital is warm seawater: the Atlantic is very warm this year.

So it's all down to global warming?

Hard to say. There are natural cycles in the temperature of the oceans. But most scientists agree that hurricanes will get stronger as the world warms up. Whether they will be more frequent is a much more open question.

ATHENS (AFP) - Thousands of migratory birds in the Greek nature reserve of Lake Koronia have died in recent months in what birds specialists are calling "an ecological catastrophe," several sources said.

Hundreds of dead gulls, tern and ducks -- at least 15 species in all -- were discovered just in the last few days, the sources said Thursday.

Autopsies and tests of water samples from the lake are underway, but experts do not yet know what is responsible for the sudden wave of avian fatalities, described by Xenofon Kappas, spokesman of the Greek ornithological society, as "a major ecological catastrophe."

"For the moment, we are in the process of counting the number of dead birds," Kappas told AFP.

The Greek news agency ANA put the Lake Korina avian death toll at 3,000, but experts said that more than 10,000 dead birds have been found on the lake in recent months.

The Mayor of Salonika, 520 kilometers (320 miles) north of Athens, adopted "emergency measures" to deal with the crisis, reported ANA, and water samples have been sent to Salonika University for testing. Fishing has also been banned, though no dead fish have been found.

Lake Korinia is one of 27 parks in Greece that are part of the Natura 2000, a European Union-sponsored network of bird sanctuaries and threatened habitats.

The Lake is also one of 10 Greek ecological sites protected by the Ramsar treaty, and international convention on wetland ecosystems adopted in the mid-1970.

Southern Cuba has been feeling the first effects of Ivan's winds, and the island's western tip is expected to take the full force later on Monday.

Meanwhile, the low-lying Cayman Islands have reportedly suffered enormous damage, with large areas under water. [...]

Reuters reported people clambering on to kitchen counters and roof tops as waist-high storm surges aided by 160mph (260km/h) winds swept across the island.

Warning

The US National Hurricane Center said Ivan had strengthened to the most dangerous category five level as it moved from the Cayman Islands on to Cuba. [...]

Hurricane Ivan is the sixth-strongest storm to ever hit the Atlantic basin, the National Hurricane Center has said.

Blair promised to make the issue a centerpiece of Britain's presidency of the G8 industrialized countries in 2005 and laid out a three-point international strategy to tackle a phenomenon he said could become "irreversible in its destructive power."

Blair pointed to violent weather conditions across the globe this year and said the richest countries created most of the problem while the poorest bore the brunt.

"It is the poorest countries in the world that will suffer most ... yet it is they who have contributed least to the problem," Blair said in a speech to experts in London.

"That is why the world's richest nations in the G8 have a responsibility to lead the way."

Bush dismayed many allies in 2001 by pulling the United States out of the U.N.'s Kyoto protocol, the main international pact meant to cap emissions of greenhouse gases.

America is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Blair said Kyoto was only a first step but noted that the last time the U.S. Senate voted on the issue, it was unanimously against it. "I doubt time has shifted the numbers very radically," he admitted.

PINAR DEL RIO, Cuba (AP) - Hurricane Ivan whipped western Cuba with 257-kilometre-an-hour winds, ripping the roofs of tobacco barns and houses and drenching fields before moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, threatening offshore oil rigs and setting off an exodus along the U.S. coast.

Five Florida counties and a Louisiana parish urged or ordered residents to leave Tuesday as Ivan spun out of the Caribbean. One of the fiercest storms ever recorded in the region, Ivan cut a deadly swath through Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, killing at least 68 people.

In Mexico, hundreds of people abandoned fishing settlements on the Yucatan peninsula, and the resort city of Cancun opened shelters and closed beaches. Cozumel island, a dive resort known for its lumbering sea turtles, shut its airport and halted cruise ship arrivals. [...]

Cuba's tobacco crop was safe, according to top grower Alejandro Robaina. Planting season doesn't begin until next month and remnants of January's harvest are protected in curing houses. Tobacco is the communist-run island's third-largest export, producing an average of 150 million cigars worth about $240 million US a year. Sugar, the lead export, was spared since much of the cane is grown in the east.

OVER GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands - Expensive yachts were beached, tossed to the shore like toys. Well-built homes were reduced to splintered wood, or left without roofs. Utility poles and palm trees were snapped in two or uprooted.

Widespread destruction was visible from an airplane chartered by The Associated Press that overflew the island Monday, the day after Hurricane Ivan struck the Cayman Islands.

On Grand Cayman's famed Seven Mile Beach, one hotel was partially smashed. Many others were damaged, including some missing roofs. Debris was everywhere.

Animals congregated on higher ground to escape the flood. Some century-old trees three stories tall were torn up by their roots.

Although the runway at Grand Cayman had been cleared of debris and floodwaters, the AP charter was not allowed to land because access was restricted to approved flights and those carrying in emergency supplies.

There were no reports of injury or death — but there were poignant stories of survival.

On Grand Cayman, one firefighter rescued a family in danger, handed an infant by a parent standing shoulder-deep in floodwaters.

Just recounting the incident, which was relayed from firefighters, choked up Pilar Bush, tourism director of the British territory that was slammed by the fiercest hurricane it has experienced in more than 60 years.

"It just made me think of 9/11," Bush said in a telephone interview from New York, where her government sent her to meet with the media in case of disrupted communications.

Telephone service failed when Hurricane Ivan pounded the island with winds and gusts up to 200 mph but spared it a direct hit, leaving Bush in sporadic contact with the government.

Thousands of people are homeless on Grand Cayman, the capital of a territory of 45,000, she told the AP, because of significant damage to between one-quarter and one-half of the homes there.

The government was looking at available hotels and school dormitories to house the displaced people, she said. Soup kitchens were set up Monday on the island known for its offshore banking and well-heeled tourists.

"I don't even know if my family's alive," Bush said, citing the sporadic communications.

The Caymans — a group of three islands that draw hundreds of thousands of tourists and cruise ship passengers a year — have not experienced a storm of this ferocity since 1932.

In that year, an era before hurricanes were given names, one storm made a direct hit, taking hundreds of lives.

Many died on Cayman Brac, what is known as a "sister island." They took shelter in caves on higher ground but then left their refuge in the calm when the eye passed over — only to be struck by the fierce winds from other side of the eyewall.

For Ivan, hundreds of Caymanians again fled again to the caves. They were reported safe on Monday, Bush said.

MIAMI - Tropical Storm Jeanne formed Tuesday in the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday and was expected to hit Puerto Rico with strong wind and heavy rain by Wednesday morning.

The National Hurricane Center posted tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, St. Kitts and Nevis.

Jeanne could be packing sustained wind of 60 mph and drop 9 inches of rain when it hits Puerto Rico, center forecasters said.

"It's not the same as Ivan, but it is certainly threatening weather," forecaster Rafael Mojica said.

At 2 p.m. EDT, Jeanne had top sustained wind of nearly 50 mph and was expected to strengthen. It was centered about 100 southeast of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands and was moving west-northwest at about 10 mph.

Forecasters said the storm could hit or skim past the Dominican Republic on Thursday, Haiti on Friday and move over the eastern tip of Cuba or into the Bahamas by Saturday. There is a chance the storm could hit Florida early next week. Mojica said it could become a Category 1 hurricane with sustained wind topping 74 mph by Saturday.

Jeanne is the 10th named storm to form in the Atlantic this tropical storm season, which began June 1. Three have hit Florida, and Ivan is threatening to hit the Gulf Coast this week.

Hurricanes Charley and Frances caused up to $20 billion in damage to Florida and killed at least 50 people. Tropical Storm Bonnie caused minimal damage when it struck the Panhandle.

Javier was spotted 455 kilometers (280 miles) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima, in western Mexico, traveling at 17 kilometers (10 miles) per hour.

Meanwhile, deadly Hurricane Ivan threatened Mexico's Gulf coast, located 220 kilometers (145 miles) east of Cancun, after killing 69 people as it tore through the Caribbean.

WASHINGTON - With Hurricane Ivan threatening the Gulf Coast and cleanup still under way after hurricanes Charley and Frances, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has issued 42 disaster declarations so far this year.

While that's above normal, it does not approach the record 75 disaster declarations of 1996. By this date in 1996, there had been 63 disasters declared nationwide.

FEMA said Tuesday it has received 353,716 claims for help from Florida residents battered by Charley and Frances. [...]

Heavy rains and strong winds were forecast for Tuesday, though there were no reports of damages or injuries as the storm moved slowly inland through Zhejiang province, southwest of Shanghai. State media reported that local authorities declared a state of high alert and relocated 120,000 people ahead of the storm, the 21st of the season. Workers were rushing to shore up flood dikes.

Haima, the Chinese name for sea horse, brought torrential rains and winds of 55 kilometres per hour as it passed over northern Taiwan on Sunday. The storm triggered a mudslide that buried a Taiwanese family of four and flooded thousands of homes.

Parts of Taiwan, Japan and eastern China are still recovering from flooding and mudslides triggered by a series of storms that have swept through the region during this year's typhoon season.

(CP) - New antibiotic-resistant pathogens, airborne mercury and urban sprawl are threatening the health of the Great Lakes and millions of people who live around the bodies of fresh water, a report to the Canadian and U.S. governments concludes.

While there has been a general improvement in water quality over the past 30 years, the International Joint Commission report released Monday warns new and emerging threats require urgent attention. "Without adequate safeguards, our health can be threatened by pathogens and disease-bearing micro-organisms," the report states.
"The governments must focus increased attention on protecting the sources of drinking water supplies."

Dennis Schornack, American co-chairman of the commission, said the frequent use of antibiotics in livestock and humans is causing the problem.

Bacteria can develop immunity to the drugs, then end up in drinking water and cause illness, he said.

"We've got to become better at monitoring pathogens in the water and examine whether the waste-water treatment plants that we have in place are successfully killing the organisms," Schornack said.

Herb Gray, the commission's Canadian co-chairman, said the best way to tackle the problem is to curb the use of antibiotics.

The biennial report recommends better management of watersheds to mitigate the impact of agriculture, development, industry and urbanization - a daunting task.

"There are a large number of problems still to be dealt with," Gray said.

"(They) are large-scale. They'll require large amounts of money over an extended period of time."

Another threat identified in the report is airborne methyl-mercury, which ends up in the water. Most comes from regional coal-fired power generators, but some comes from as far as China.

Other chemicals, such as fire retardants commonly used for furniture, are posing new threats.

"Chemical contamination continues to endanger human health and restricts the number of fish we can safely eat," Gray said.

Another area of concern is the ongoing problem posed by alien species brought in by the ballast water of foreign ships.

Currently, about one new invasive species takes hold every eight months.

While there have been some successes in controlling their proliferation, none have ever been eradicated.

Still, Schornack said he believes overall water quality in the lakes has improved in recent decades.

As an example, he noted Lake Erie is now far healthier than it was 30 years ago.

However, the emergence of unexplained dead zones in the lake has raised new worries.

"We're very concerned about Lake Erie, not only for Lake Erie itself but for what it could be a harbinger of for the other lakes," Gray said. [...]

NEW ORLEANS - Some beach towns were deserted Wednesday and highways leading to higher ground were jammed as Hurricane Ivan roared toward the Gulf Coast with 140 mph.

Nearly 200 miles wide, Ivan could cause significant damage no matter where it strikes, as hurricane-force wind extended up to 105 miles out from the center. Hurricane warnings were posted along a 300-mile stretch from Grand Isle, La., across coastal Mississippi and Alabama to Apalachicola, Fla.

"We're leaving today. All this is going under," said a surfer Chuck Myers who was only taking pictures of the waves Wednesday morning at Gulf Shores. "We surfed it all day yesterday. It was glorious."

"This is a bad one and people need to get out," Mobile, Ala., Mayor Mike Dow said Wednesday on ABC's "Good Morning America." [...]

FLORENCE, Miss. - Fleeing northward from Hurricane Ivan, Angela Zimmerman and her mother and son, evacuees from Mobile, Ala., spent the night in their minivan somewhere in the woods of south Mississippi, then awoke early Wednesday and formed a prayer circle.

"God's going to protect us. We prayed this morning before we left, so we know that's taken care of," Zimmerman, 33, said at a gas station about 20 miles south of Jackson.

Northbound U.S. 49 between the Mississippi Gulf Coast and Jackson was bumper-to-bumper Wednesday with people who had fled coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Hotels were booked solid as far north as Memphis, Tenn., nearly 325 miles northwest of Mobile. [...]

NEW ORLEANS - The worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength Hurric