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Editorial: Signs Economic Commentary for 25 December 2006
Donald Hunt
Signs of the Times
December 25, 2006
Gold closed at 622.30 dollars an ounce on Friday, up 0.5% from $619.00 at the close of the previous Friday. The dollar closed at 0.7617 euros Friday, down 0.4% from 0.7645 at the close of the week before. The euro closed at 1.3128 dollars compared to $1.3080 for the week. Gold in euros would be 474.02 euros an ounce, up 0.2% from 473.24 euros at the end of the week before. Oil closed at 62.41 dollars a barrel Friday, down 1.6% from $63.43 at the close of the previous week. Oil in euros would be 47.54 euros a barrel, down 2.0% from 48.49 for the week. The gold/oil ratio closed at 9.97, up 2.2% from 9.76 at the end of the week before. In U.S. stocks, the Dow closed at 12,343.22 Friday, down 0.8% from 12,445.52 for the week. The NASDAQ closed at 2,401.18, down 2.3% from 2,457.20 at the close of the previous Friday. In U.S. interest rates, the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 4.62%, up three basis points from 4.59 for the week.
Since it's Christmas, what better time to think about the deeper significance of gift exchange? In the weeks leading up to Christmas, a steady stream of reports about retail performance is released and scrutinized for clues on the health of the economy. Any retailer knows how important the gift-giving season is for the whole year's performance. What is the meaning of all this gift exchange in a neoliberal economy? Are holidays like Christmas mere survivals of archaic practices serving contemporary economic functions in late capitalism, or is there more to the story?
The exchange of gift has always been somewhat difficult, as we will see, for classical economics to understand. See, for example, this piece by James Surowiecki:
The Gift Right Out
Christmas shopping in the U.S. has been a reliable source of anxiety and stress for well over a century. "As soon as the Thanksgiving turkey is eaten, the great question of buying Christmas presents begins to take the terrifying shape it has come to assume in recent years," the New York Tribune wrote in 1894. But recently millions of Americans, instead of trudging through malls in a desperate quest for the perfect sweater, have switched to buying gift cards. The National Retail Federation expects that Americans will buy close to twenty-five billion dollars' worth of gift cards this season, up thirty-four per cent from last year, with two-thirds of shoppers intending to buy at least one card; gift cards now rival apparel as the most popular category of present. This is, in part, because of clever corporate marketing: stores like gift cards because they amount to an interest-free loan from customers, and because recipients usually spend more than the amount on the card - a phenomenon that retailers tenderly refer to as "uplifting" spending. But the boom in gift cards is also a rational response to the most important economic fact about Christmas gift giving: most of us just aren't that good at it.
We all know that bad gifts inflict a cost - just think of the rigid smiles that greet an unwanted floral tie or Josh Rouse CD - but it's surprising how big that cost can be. Since the early nineteen-nineties, Joel Waldfogel, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania, has been doing a series of studies in which college students are asked to put a value on the presents they receive. Waldfogel's main finding is that, in general, people spend a lot more on presents than they're worth to those who receive them, a phenomenon that he calls "the deadweight loss of Christmas." A deadweight loss is created when you spend eighty dollars to give me a sweater that I would spend only sixty-five dollars to buy myself. Waldfogel estimates that somewhere between ten and eighteen per cent of seasonal spending becomes deadweight loss, which means that billions of dollars a year is now going to waste.
Why aren't we better at gift giving? A lot of the time, we don't know the people we're shopping for all that well. Much of the deadweight loss that Waldfogel found was caused by older people, who may not be attuned to what their young relatives really want, and are therefore more likely to give gifts that recipients value less. More surprisingly, though, we're also bad at buying for the people we're closest to. A recent study by the marketing professors Davy Lerouge and Luk Warlop finds that familiarity can actually lead us astray. They ran a series of experiments with long-standing couples in which the partners tried to predict each other's taste in furniture - a sort of academic version of "The Newlywed Game" - and found that, in general, people did a poor job of it. In making predictions, people tend to rely on what Lerouge and Warlop call "pre-stored beliefs and expectations," rather than paying close attention to what their partner really liked. People did a good job of predicting their partner's preferences, in fact, only when they shared those preferences. My idea of what you want, it turns out, has a lot to do with what I want.
Does our incompetence at gift giving matter? Many would say no. Waldfogel, after all, measured the value of presents in purely monetary terms - he explicitly told his subjects to ignore sentimental attachments. But sentiment obviously has a tremendous amount to do with how we respond to gifts. A study by the economists Sara Solnick and David Hemenway shows that we value unrequested gifts more than presents we ask for, because we assume that the former show more thought. And we also go to great lengths to demonstrate that a gift is more than a dollar sign: we snip off price tags, clip the prices off book jackets, and ask for gift receipts that hide the cost of the present.
The problem is that, while we say that gift giving is about sentiment, not about money, we act as if the best expressions of sentiment came in expensive packages. Around a hundred and fifty billion dollars is spent on gifts during the holiday season every year; this year, the average American expects to spend close to a thousand dollars on presents. And, much as sentiment counts, we don't let it stand in the way of getting what we want: according to a survey by the National Retail Federation, forty per cent of America expects to return at least one holiday gift this year, and an American Express survey found that roughly a third of respondents had "re-gifted" presents. If we're spending all this time and money on gifts, the fact that so much of it is wasted matters.
An economist might suggest that the solution is to abandon the pretense and simply start exchanging small piles of money. The boom in gift cards is a kind of socially tolerable version of this: the cards are somehow more personal than cash, and they're also not going to be wasted on an unwanted gift. But Waldfogel's studies also suggest a very different solution: if most of the presents we buy are going to be less valuable in monetary terms than in sentimental ones, then there's no reason to believe that the more expensive gift is a better gift. In fact, the more we spend at Christmas, the more we waste. We might actually be happier - and we'd certainly be wealthier - if we exchanged small, well-considered gifts rather than haunting the malls. Calculating the deadweight loss of Christmas gifts is a coldhearted project, but it leads to a paradoxically warmhearted conclusion: the fact of giving may be more important than what you give. Start with "Bah, humbug" and you somehow end up with "God bless us, every one."
You can see that economists have trouble thinking in terms of gift and counter-gift. Indeed, as evidenced by the growth of gift cards, cash gifts, and gift registries, so do members of neoliberal societies. Anthropologists, starting with Marcel Mauss in the 1920s with his Essai sur le don, or in English translation, The Gift: Form and Functions of Exchange in Archaic Societies (New York: Norton, 1967) identified gift exchange as something much more fundamental to society. It was not only a way for goods to circulate in a fashion antithetical, perhaps, to the way identified in classical economics but also a primary way that social ties are formed and maintained.
Mauss, while looking primarily at primitive and archaic societies, was explicit in his belief that the values of a gift society could be encouraged in the twentieth century. Later we will look at some contemporary work in the Maussian tradition which sees the gift economy as fundamental to even modern, neo-liberal society. They see gift exchange as one of three modes of circulation (market, state and gift). Or, as Alain Caille put it, "goods and services do not circulate only according to market laws or to the redistributive rules of the state ... There is a third form of circulation that is as important, in fact more important, than the other two - circulation according to the gift and counter-gift." (Jacques Godbout with Alain Caille, The World of the Gift, Montreal: McGill - Queen's University Press, 1998, p. vii)
Two non-conformist economists, Francois Perroux (1963) and Serge Christophe Kolm (1984), have identified three complementary economic systems: the market, ruled by self-interest; government planning, ruled by constraint; and that of the gift. (Godbout, p. 15)
Gifts are inherently paradoxical. At the same time freely given and given under obligation, for both selfless and selfish reasons, how can they be characterized? What is clear is that gift exchange can't be reduced to classical economic maximization strategies. Ties and bonds between groups and individuals are at stake, not just profit and loss. Here is Mauss:
We have repeatedly pointed out how this economy of gift-exchange fails to conform to the principles of so-called natural economy or utilitarianism. The phenomena in the economic life of the people we have studied ... and the survivals of these traditions in societies closer to ours and even in our own custom, are disregarded in the schemes adopted by the few economists who have tried to compare the various forms of economic life.
The notion of value exists in these societies. Very great surpluses, even by European standards, are amassed; they are expended often at pure loss with tremendous extravagance and without a trace of mercenariness; among things exchanged are tokens of wealth, a kind of money. All this very rich economy is nevertheless imbued with religious elements; money still has its magical power and is linked to clan and individual. Diverse economic activities - for example, the market - are impregnated with ritual and myth; they retain a ceremonial character, obligatory and efficacious; they have their own ritual and etiquette ...
On the contrary, it is something other than utility which makes goods circulate in these multifarious and fairly enlightened societies. Clans, age groups and sexes, in view of the many relationships ensuing from contacts between them, are in a state of perpetual economic effervescence which has little about it that is materialistic; it is much less prosaic than our sale and purchase, hire of services and speculations. (Mauss, The Gift, pp. 69-70)
...Let us test now the notion to which we have opposed the ideas of the gift and disinterestedness; that of interest and the individual pursuit of utility. This agrees no better with previous theories. If similar motives animate Trobriand and American chiefs and Andaman clans and once animated generous Hindu or Germanic noblemen in their giving and spending, they are not to be found in the cold reasoning of the business man, banker or capitalist. In those earlier civilizations one had interests but they differed from those of our time. There, if one hoards, it is only to spend later on, to put people under obligations and to win followers. Exchanges are made as well, but only of luxury objects like clothing and ornaments, or feasts and other things that have to be consumed at once. Return is made with interest, but that is done in order to humiliate the original donor or exchange partner and not merely to recompense him for the loss that the lapse of time causes him.
The victory of rationalism and mercantilism was required before the notions of profit and the individual were given currency and raised to the level of principles. One can date roughly - after Mandeville and his Fable des Abeilles - the triumph of the notion of individual interest ...
It is only our Western societies that quite recently turned man into an economic animal. But we are not yet all animals of the same species. In both lower and upper classes pure irrational expenditure is in current practice: it is still characteristic of some French noble houses .... (Mauss, pp. 73-4)
Jacques Godbout has taken Mauss's work and applied it to late twentieth century society. According to Godbout, the gift culture is alive and well in late capitalist society but it offers a challenge to neoliberal thinking:
The modern realist refuses to believe in the existence of the gift because the gift is seen as diametrically opposed to material, egoistic self-interest. A "true" gift can only be disinterested, freely given. And, as such a thing is impossible ("there is no free lunch"), the gift, the genuine gift, is equally impossible, with the result that their seemingly altruistic actions are really to their advantage. On the one hand, as we have said, such denial allows them to conform to the egoistic morality of the time. But, on a deeper level, by denying that their motivations are disinterested, they attest to the reality of the gift. For, as Mary Douglas has shown, the free gift does not exist - except insofar as it is a sign of antisocial behavior - for the gift serves above all to establish relations, and a relationship with no hope of return (from the individual receiving the gift or his substitute), a one-way relationship, disinterested and motiveless, would be no relationship at all. Beyond the abstract ideas of egoism and altruism and the rigid antithesis between a supposedly real moment of radical disinterest, we must think of the gift not as a series of unilateral and discontinuous acts but as an element in a relationship. (Godbout, p. 7)
Neoliberals and economists, however, will counter that,
It is true that there still are occasions set aside for the exchanging of gifts, and opportunities remain to show charity, offer rounds in bars, feel indebted, be "outdone," or, on the other hand, to free oneself of onerous, symbolic debts through recourse to money and merchandise. But these occasions are few and far between, isolated islands in a sea of utilitarian calculation. This hypothesis of the bare survival, occasional and discontinuous, of the gift, is, however contradicted by our most recent observations. These suggest that we must see the gift as the basis for a system, a system that is nothing less than the social system as a whole. The gift is the embodiment of that system of relationships that is strictly social, in that these relations cannot be reduced to factors of power of economic interest.
We are prevented from seeing this - although it is virtually self-evident - by the way contemporary thought processes associated utilitarianism, on which we all depend, lead us to formulate questions. According to that way of thinking the gift does not exist, either because only a truly disinterested gift would be a genuine gift and it is impossible to be disinterested, or because the authentic gift requires real altruism, which is unattainable since the altruist must have some egoistic reason for being an altruist. It is important to recognize that these tautological dichotomies, which force us to think only in terms of the opposition of two terms, create a smoke screen which prevents us from seeing the truth. (Godbout, pp. 13-4)
According to Godbout,
Archaic and traditional societies thought of themselves in the language of the gift, a language that defined their being-in-the-world and their distinctiveness, particularly in terms of primary social bonds (bonds desired for themselves) and refusal to lapse into historicity. It was therefore within the imaginative and sometimes frankly ideological space of the gift that they experienced and understood not only the community of humans and individual equality but also authority, law, hierarchy, exploitation, domination, and power. As modernity defines itself first and foremost by its absolute refusal of tradition, it is not surprising that it thinks it can assert its freedom by ridding itself of a language that seems coextensive with tradition, the language of the gift - and that it reserves its harshest words and most caustic sarcasm to discredit and keep in place anything that advocates generous or noble acts, such as Christian love.
We could discuss at length the historical causes for the development of the market economy and modern bureaucratic nation-states. But there is little doubt that they have much, if not everything, to do with the growing modern horror of closed communities bound together by obligatory gifts that confirm traditional hierarchies. In that sense, the market and the modern bureaucratic state, machines that destroy traditions and particularity, are above all anti-gift devices. (Godbout, p. 17)
The gift is only paradoxical from the point of view of atomized individuality. If we look at it in terms of a network of those seeking to serve self by serving others it makes sense:
How can we provide a theory of a phenomenon that has so many features - free, undecidable, contextual, spontaneous, refusing the subject-object distinction at the heart of modern thought, lacking explicit rules of conduct - that seems incompatible with any formalization? We can make some progress through the idea of the network, an idea that has already been explored in fields of research, such as artificial intelligence (AI), that have also run aground on determinist models. (Godbout, p. 197)
From the point of view of network theory, what, then, is the State and the Market?
The state is a hierarchy, but inclusive, not tangled, without a loop other that the simple minimal loop of feedback. Its channels run one way only, which eliminates certain problems (chance meetings and accidents, gift relationships based on domination, etc.) but at the same time reduces the flexibility of the system. Everything that circulates passes through a centre before moving off in the other direction, each time leaving behind a part of its contents, which mans that what circulates arrives considerably diminished compared to when it started out. The only possibility of return is feedback: in other words, the system only keeps what it wants from the outside. With the strange loop, on the other hand, the outside imposes things on the system. There is a dynamic interaction. The state apparatus makes no strange loop, for nothing may be imposed on it that has not been foreseen - things take a fixed parallel double route: concentration - redistribution. For the state apparatus, where a single individual is concerned the file is memory. For groups of individuals it is rights and the law.
For its part, the market is a tangled network but it is not hierarchical. That is why it also is a simple loop. The market is a boulevard, sometimes a freeway, where circulation is governed by a mechanism that ensures that everywhere, when an object passes by in one direction, an "equivalent" object passes by in the other direction. But on another level it is one-way, as its only goal is to transmit things from producer to consumer, at which point they disappear from the system.
The market is a network of freeways that goes off in all directions. It is tangled (Jorion, 1989, 44, 68). Unlike the state, it is decentralized. It "chooses" its path, like a telephone network. It is infinitely extensible in space, but on one plane only. It has no depth, for it is flattened by the quest for equal exchange, for perfect equivalence. It is a surface that can cover the entire planet, thanks to the fact that it also constitutes a network from which one has removed "the hazards of human relationships (Simmel 1987). It is a kind of simple tangling (Hofstadter 1980), a simple connection. What is more, the market has one starting point and one destination, one direction, from the producer to the consumer. Time for the market, its memory, is money. Of its own volition, it only draws on a tiny part of past relationships between people. It sets aside the bond and its personal history. But it is not surprising that Bateson claims that "of all imaginary organisms [dragons, gods ...], economic man is the dullest ... because his mental processes are all quantitative, and his preferences transitive" (1987, 175). It is this, however, that enables so-called economic man to be universal and to cross cultures.
Compared to the state, the market opens onto an infinite, free space. And we can easily understand that if a member of society is faced with a state apparatus that lacks a democratic loop, the mercantile network can appear to be a liberation, with its countless, seemingly endless paths. But we also understand that humans are soon dissatisfied with the absence of social ties that the market brings in its wake, that they come to feel they have been shrunken by this shallow network, diminished, a bit like a three-dimensional being flattened into two dimensions ... (Godbout, pp. 200-1)
Here we see a diabolical facet of neoliberal ideology: that there are only two alternatives, free markets or state tyranny (that was the false choice of the Cold War). Once we accept that, they've got us. It is imperative that we always look for the "third man."
The third choice, the gift, differs from the other two by its multidimensionality:
The gift combines the loop of the market and the hierarchy of the state, which makes it a tangled hierarchy. That is why anything seized from the gift by the state or the market model represents either a vertical section of the gift-giving system, retaining only its hierarchical aspect with its obligations and constraints, or a horizontal section, retaining only the simple, flat network of the market, which is governed by the single law of equivalence, which neutralizes ties and their contextual variability. (Godbout, p. 202)
And finally,
- For Hofstadter, as for most philosophers, the intelligence of the human species involves one loop in addition to those that animals have, the loop that is responsible for the fact that we know that we know, for the self-awareness that has defined humans since the Greeks.
- For some theorists in modern democracy, the difference between those in primitive societies and ourselves also resides in our having one additional loop, that which endows us with autonomy, something not available in primitive societies.
- For utilitarian liberals, the superiority of the market over the gift also implies an extra loop, the self-knowledge that teaches us that every gift is an unconscious exchange and that the donor is self-interested. On this theory, this is the loop of lucidity that enables us to move away from primitive spontaneity and naivety and accede to rationality - or rather to the consciousness of rationality, since every human is utilitarian, even if they don't know it or refuse to acknowledge it.
- The gift represents still another level: the awareness that to make the exchange explicit is one level too much, which freezes the exchange and transforms it, making it lose its flexibility by lessening the uncertainty and underdetermination, thus relegating it to a lower level. The mercantile loop, for the gift, rather than being an additional loop, is a perverse loop. To refuse this loop is to create a level superior to it. This is the level of language, of creation, of the vagueness needed to reflect the indetermination and radical incompleteness of these systems and their irreduciblity to determinist systems such as those embodied in the models for bureaucratic apparatus and the market. The gift is a conscious abandonment to the absence of calculation, a spontaneous meta-level that can be described as "behaviour that results from an effect of self-organization" (Jorion 1990, 117). If we follow the rules, we do not know how to give, any more than we know how to speak a language if we have to follow its rules while we are talking. (Godbout, p. 204)
We also discussed in previous installments the divide between primitive and civilized, to use two somewhat discredited terms. We asked if there were only two choices there as well. We wondered if there could be a non-exploitative, anarchist high-tech gift culture. We noted that large-scale exploitation of humans by other humans began with the invention of agriculture, or large scale exploitation of nature by humans. Everything seems to have changed ten thousand years ago. What happened? Why? Are there clues in that break?
To dig a little deeper into the issues of the Neolithic Revolution and our desire for open, creative networks, let's look at the ideas of Daniel Quinn, a novelist in the anthropological tradition of Marshall Sahlins, who has written with a lot of insight on just what did change ten thousand years ago. Quinn is firmly in the primitivist camp, a position which we will also call into question, but his primitivism is oriented toward the open, emergent evolution of complex systems.
In anthropological work, the anthropologist, an outsider to a culture, learns about another culture by participating in it and interviewing informants. In Quinn's most well-known novel, Ishmael ((Daniel Quinn, Ishmael, New York:Bantam, 1995), this role is played by a gorilla, Ishmael, who can speak telepathically. It sounds a bit silly, but the character of the gorilla is well-drawn. The narrator, a disillusioned middle-age person, meets regularly with Ishmael after answering an ad about saving the world.
Ishmael soon convinces the narrator that our society still operates by an overarching myth. The most fundamental parts of our myth arises from the neolithic invention of agriculture. Quinn calls the predominant myth the story of the Takers. The other myth, enacted by most humankind during the last million years or so, was the story of the Leavers.
" ...all you have to know is that two fundamentally different stories have been enacted here during the lifetime of man. One began to be enacted here some two or three million years ago by the people we've agreed to call Leavers and is still being enacted by them today, as successfully as ever. The other began to be enacted here some ten or twelve thousand years ago by the people we've agreed to call Takers, and is apparently about to end in catastrophe." (Daniel Quinn, Ishmael, New York:Bantam, 1995, p. 41)
Ishmael then asks the narrator to tell his culture's creation myth and he does, beginning with the Big Bang, continuing with the development and evolution of life on planet Earth and ending with the appearance of Man.
The narrator still doesn't see that this story is a myth, it's scientific and factual, after all. so Ishmael tells him another story, similar to the narrator's except for the fact that it is told by a jellyfish eons ago to an alien anthropologist. The story ends with the "appearance" of jellyfish:
"But finally," the creature said, turning quite pink with pride as he came to the climax of the story, "but finally jellyfish appeared!"
Ishmael continued,
"What did the jellyfish mean when it said, 'But finally jellyfish appeared'?"
"It meant ... that is what it was all leading up to. This is what the whole ten of fifteen billion years of creation were leading up to: jellyfish."
"I agree. And why doesn't your account of creation end with the appearance of jellyfish?"
... "Because there was more to come beyond jellyfish?"
"That's right. Creation didn't end with jellyfish. Still to come were the vertebrates and the amphibians and the reptiles and the mammals, and, of course, man." (Ibid., p. 56)
The implication is clear. The narrator's story ended with "and finally man appeared."
"Meaning that there was no more to come. Meaning that creation had come to an end."
"This is what it was all leading up to."
... "That seems to be the unspoken assumption."
"It's certainly not always unspoken. The religions of your culture aren't reticent about it. Man is the end product of creation. Man is the creature for whom all the rest was made: this world, this solar system, this galaxy, the universe itself."
... "Everyone in your culture knows that the world wasn't created for jellyfish or salmon or iguanas or gorillas. It was created for man."
... "But what about the rest? Did the entire cosmic process of creation come to an end three million years ago, right here on this little planet, with the appearance of man?"
"No."
Did even the planetary process of creation come to an end three million years ago with the appearance of man? Did evolution come to a screeching halt just because man had arrived?"
..."As you tell it, the birth of man was a central event - indeed the central event - in the history of the cosmos itself. From the birth of man on, the rest of the universe ceases to be of interest, ceases to participate in the unfolding drama. For this, earth alone is sufficient; it is the birthplace and home of man, and that's its meaning. The Takers regard the world as a sort of human life-support system, as a machine designed to produce and sustain human life."
..."All right. That's the premise of your story: The world was made for man." (Ibid., pp. 57-61)
Therefore, according to the Taker myth, humans rule the earth.
"Man's destiny was to was to conquer and rule the world, and this is what he's done - almost. He hasn't quite made it, and it looks as though this may be his undoing. The problem is that man's conquest of the world has itself devastated the world. And in spite of all the mastery we've attained, we don't have enough mastery to stop devastating the world - or to repair the devastation we've already wrought."
... "Only one thing can save us. We have to increase our mastery of the world. All this damage has come about through our conquest of the world, but we have to go on conquering it until our rule is absolute. Then, when we're in complete control, everything will be fine. We'll have fusion power. No pollution. We'll turn the rain on and off. We'll grow a bushel of wheat in a square centimeter. We'll turn the oceans into farms ..."
"And that's where it stands right now. We have to carry the conquest forward. And carrying it forward is either going to destroy the world or turn it into a paradise - into the paradise it was meant to be under human rule."
"And if we manage to do this - if we finally manage to make ourselves the absolute rulers of the world - then nothing can stop us. Then we move into the Star Trek era. Man moves out into space to conquer and rule the entire universe. And that may be the ultimate destiny of man: to conquer and rule the entire universe. That's how wonderful man is." (pp. 80-1)
The main difference between Takers and Leavers is this: in contrast to Takers, Leavers:
...never exterminate their competitors, which is something that never happens in the wild. In the wild, animals will defend their territories and their kills and they will invade their competitors' territories and preempt their kills. Some species even include competitors among their prey, but they will never hunt competitors down just to make them dead, the way ranchers and farmers do with coyotes and foxes and crows. What they hunt, they eat." (p. 126)
Takers, on the other hand,
" ...systematically destroy their competitors' food to make room for their own. Nothing like this occurs in the natural community. The rule there is: Take what you need, and leave the rest alone."
... "Next, the Takers deny their competitors access to food. In the wild, the rule is: You may deny your competitors access to what you're eating, but you may not deny them access to food in general. In other words, you can say, 'This gazelle is mine,' but you can't say, 'All gazelles are mine.'"
"Our policy is: Every square foot of this planet belongs to us, so if we put it all under cultivation, then all our competitors are just plain out of luck and will have to become extinct. Our policy is to deny our competitors access to all the food in the world, and that's something no other species does." (p. 127-8)
What results is the end of evolution. For Quinn, evolution can only happen when a species put itself in the hands of the gods, so to speak, in other words when it relinquishes the attempt to stop evolution in its own favor. The attempt to control all life for the benefit of one species results in a catastrophic reduction of life, and the variety that life provides and which fuels creativity and evolution. The scheme maps well onto Laura Knight-Jadczyk's opposition between creativity and entropy. The creativity and entropy distinction came about, interestingly, as a refinement of the Service to Others and Service to Self opposition (STS vs. STO). Which brings us back to the question we started this with: What would an open, STO economy look like?
"'No species shall make the life of the world its own.'"
... "That's one expression of the law. Here's another: 'The world was not made for any one species.'"
..."The people of your culture cling with fanatical tenacity to the specialness of man. They want desperately to perceive a vast gulf between man and the rest of creation. This mythology of human superiority justifies their doing whatever they please with the world ... But in the end this mythology is not deeply satisfying. The Takers are a profoundly lonely people. The world for them is enemy territory, and they live in it like an army of occupation, alienated and isolated by their extraordinary specialness." (pp. 145-6)
The Fall, then, occurred when humans tried to take the place of "the gods" or those who rule the world and make the decisions about who shall live and who shall die.
"The disaster occurred when, ten thousand years ago, the people of your culture said, "We're as wise as the gods and can rule the world as well as they.' When they took into their own hands the power of life and death over the world, their doom was assured."
"Yes. Because they are not in fact as wise as the gods."
"The gods ruled the world for billions of years, and it was doing just fine. After just a few thousand years of human rule, the world is at the point of death."
... "A minute ago, you told me that the Takers will never give up their tyranny over the world, no matter how bad things get. How did they get to be this way?
... "They got to be this way because they've always believed that what they were doing was right - and therefore to be done at any cost whatever.
... "They've demonstrated it by forcing everyone in the world to do what they do, to live the way they live. Everyone had to be forced to live like the Takers, because the Takers had the one right way."
... "Many peoples among the Leavers practiced agriculture, but they were never obsessed by the delusion that what they were doing was right, that everyone in the entire world had to practice agriculture, that every last square yard of the planet had to be devoted to it." (pp. 166-7)
The statement, "They got to be this way because they've always believed that what they were doing was right - and therefore to be done at any cost whatever. ... They've demonstrated it by forcing everyone in the world to do what they do, to live the way they live," fits the Cheney administration in this decade in the United States. They are the apotheosis of the Entropic, Service to Self, Taker orientation.
According to Quinn, if the human race adopts the Leaver story as its myth, we can discover that we can play a special role in the evolution of consciousness. The Leaver story is based on the premise that "man belongs to the world" rather than the world belonging to man.
"There is a sort of tendency in evolution, wouldn't you say? If you start with those ultrasimple critters in the ancient seas and move up step by step to everything we see here now - and beyond - then you have to observe a tendency toward ... complexity. And towards self-awareness and intelligence."
... "That is, all sorts of creatures on this planet appear to be on the verge of attaining that self-awareness and intelligence. So it's definitely no just humans that the gods are after. We were never meant to be the only players on this stage. Apparently the gods intend this this planet to be filled with creatures that are self-aware and intelligent."
... "man is the first of all these. He's the trailblazer, the pathfinder. His destiny is to be the first to learn that creatures like man have a choice: They can try to thwart the gods and perish in the attempt - or they can stand aside and make room for all the rest. But it's more than that. His destiny is to be the father of them all - I don't mean by direct descent. By giving all the rest their chance - the whales and the dolphins and the chimps and the raccoons - he becomes in some sense their progenitor ... Oddly enough, it's even grander than the destiny the Takers dreamed up for us." (pp. 241-2)
But back to our original question, what is the answer? How can we avoid the catastrophe? Can we have a high-tech gift culture that lives by the creative principle, or serving self by serving others? Earlier we saw that there was something about hunter-gatherer society that allowed them to live "affluent" lives without exploitation of their fellow human-beings. What can we learn from them. Quinn's work, along with Mauss's helps point the way to an answer. Open networks that have the ability to evolve without developing pathological concentrations of power need to be created. Of course they can't be imposed they would have to grow naturally. Perhaps some of the ideas we saw in David Graeber's Fragments of an Anarchist Anthropology, specifically the idea of "engaged withdrawal" from dominant, hierarchical institutions. The pulling away from the mainstream media in the internet age is a good example of the power of this, as is the whole "wiki" movement and open source software development.
We also need to examine an issue brought up by Quinn: are humans completely of organic life or not? According to Quinn, the answer would be 'yes' but is that really the case? On one side of the question are lined up primitivists, pagans and radical ecologists. Is the only position on the other side of that question the Taker position? Or can there be a third one?
Tied up with this question is another: Is there only one human race? The best scientific estimates today see around 6% of the human population as irredeemably psychopathic. Esotericists like Boris Mouravieff and Laura Knight-Jadczyk have suggested that the human race is divided equally in two between the Adamics and Pre-Adamics. The Adamics have the possibility of further individual soul development beyond this lifetime, even. According to this scheme, psychopaths are a particularly extreme variant of the pre-Adamics. If we don't take these issues account in devising utopian scenarios, we will be adding to the problem. Schemes that would work for Adamics would not for pre-Adamics. And, great care needs to be taken to be aware of and contain the damage that can be caused by psychopaths, those among us with no conscience. As Andrew Lobaczewski argued in Political Ponerology, the more our model of human nature is incorrect, the easier it is for psychopaths to undermine society and take it over. So rather than mere philosophical or theological speculation, these questions have to be confronted before we suggest practical solutions.
Networks of individuals, with knowledge of psychopaths, who are willing to submit to shocks to the ego, to having the network help them root out mechanical programs, might be able to enact a gift-economy circulation of goods and services, a high-tech gift economy. Such a thing might make real both Jesus's Kingdom of Heaven and Marx's True Communism. But psychopaths must be contained and one's own inner psychopath or predator must also be rooted out for such a utopia to be enacted.
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Editorial: Why Condemning Israel and the Zionist Lobby is so Important
James Petras
December 22, 2006
"It's no great secret why the Jewish agencies continue to trumpet support for the discredited policies of this failed administration. They see defense of Israel as their number-one goal, trumping all other items on the agenda. That single-mindedness binds them ever closer to a White House that has made combating Islamic terrorism its signature campaign. The campaign's effects on the world have been catastrophic. But that is no concern of the Jewish agencies."
December 8, 2006 statement by JJ Goldberg, editor of Forward (the leading Jewish weekly in the United States)
Introduction:
Many Jewish writers, including those who are somewhat critical of Israel, have raised pointed questions about our critique of the Zionist power configuration (ZPC) in the United States and what they wrongly claim are our singular harsh critique of the state of Israel. Some of these accusers claim to see signs of 'latent anti-Semitism', others, of a more 'leftist' coloration, deny the influential role of the ZPC arguing that US foreign policy is a product of 'geo-politics or the interests of big oil. With the recent publication of several widely circulated texts, highly critical of the power of the Zionist 'lobby', several liberal pro-Israel publicists generously conceded that it is a topic that should be debated (and not automatically stigmatized and dismissed) and perhaps be 'taken into account.'
ZPC Deniers: Phony Arguments for Fake Claims
The main claims of ZPC deniers take several tacks: Some claim that the ZPC is just 'another lobby' like the Chamber of Commerce, the Sierra Club or the Society for the Protection of Goldfish. Others claim that by focusing mainly on Israel and by inference the 'Lobby', the critics of Zionism ignore the equally violent abuses of rulers, regimes and states elsewhere. This 'exclusive focus' on Israel, the deniers of ZPC argue, reveals a latent or overt anti-Semitism. They propose that human rights advocates condemn all human rights abusers everywhere (at the same time and with the same emphasis?). Others still argue that Israel is a democracy - at least outside of the Occupied Territories (OT) - and therefore is not as condemnable as other human rights violators and should be 'credited' for its civic virtues along with its human rights failings. Finally others still claim that, because of the Holocaust and 'History-of-Two-Thousand-Years-of-Persecution', criticism of Jewish-funded and led pro-Israel lobbies should be handled with great prudence, making it clear that one criticizes only specific abuses, investigates all charges - especially those from Arab/Palestinian/United Nations/European/Human Rights sources -- and recognizes that Israeli public opinion, the press and even the Courts or sectors of them may also be critical of regime policies.
These objections to treating the Israeli-Palestinian-Arab conflict and the activities of Zionist Lobbies as central to peace and war serve to dilute, dissipate and deflate criticism and organized political activity directed at the ZPC and its directors in Israel.
The response of the critics of Israel and the ZPC to these attacks has been weak at best and cowardly at worst. Some critics have responded that their criticism is only directed toward a specific policy or leader, or to Israeli policies in the OT and that they recognize Israel is a democracy, that it requires secure borders, and that it is in the interests of the Israeli 'people' to lower their security barriers. Others argue that their criticism is directed at securing Israeli interests, influencing the Zionist Lobby or to opening a debate. They claim that the views of 'most' Jews' in the US are not represented by the 52 organizations that make up the Presidents of the Major Jewish Organizations of America, or the thousands of PACs, local federations, professional associations and weekly publications which speak with one voice as unconditional supporters of every twist and turn in the policy of the Zionist State.
There are numerous similar lines of criticism, which basically avoid the fundamental issues raised by the Israeli state and the ZPC, and which we are obliged to address. The reason that criticism and action directed against Israel and the ZPC is of central importance today in any discussion of US foreign policy, especially (but not exclusively) of Middle East policy and US domestic policymaking is that they play a decisive role and have a world-historic impact on the present and future of world peace and social justice. We turn now to examine the 'big questions' facing Americans as a result of the power of Israel in the United States.
The Big Questions Raised by the ZPC and Israeli Power in the USA:
War or Peace:
Critical study of the lead up to the US invasion of Iraq, US involvement in providing arms to Israel (cluster bombs, two-ton bunker buster bombs and satellite surveillance intelligence) prior to, during and after Israel's abortive invasion of Lebanon, Washington's backing of the starvation blockade of the Palestinian people and the White House and Congress' demands for sanctions and war against Iran are directly linked to Israeli state policy and its Zionist policy-makers in the Executive branch and US Congress. One needs to look no further than the documents, testimony and reports of AIPAC and the Presidents of the Major American Jewish Organizations to observe their claims of success in authoring legislation, providing (falsified) intelligence, engaging in espionage (AIPAC) and turning documents over to Israeli intelligence (now dubbed 'free speech' by liberal Zionists).
If, as the overwhelming evidence indicates, the ZPC played a major role in the major wars of our time, wars capable of igniting new armed conflicts, then it ill behooves us to dilute the role of the Zionist/Jewish Lobby in promoting future US wars. Given Israel's militarist-theocratic approach to territorial aggrandizement and its announced plans for future wars with Iran and Syria, and given the fact that the ZPC acts as an unquestioning and highly disciplined transmission belt for the Israeli state, then US citizens opposed to present and future US engagement in Middle East wars must confront the ZPC and its Israeli mentors. Moreover, given the extended links among the Islamic nations, the Israel/ZPC proposed 'new wars' with Iran will result in Global wars. Hence what is at stake in confronting the ZPC are questions which go beyond the Israeli-Palestine peace process, or even regional Middle East conflicts: it involves the big question of World Peace or War.
Democracy or Authoritarianism
Without the bluster and public hearings of former Senator Joseph McCarthy, the Jewish Lobby has systematically undermined the principal pillars of our fragile democracy. While the US Congress, media, academics, retired military and public figures are free to criticize the President, any criticism of Israel, much less the Jewish Lobby, is met with vicious attacks in all the op-ed pages of major newspapers by an army of pro-Israeli 'expert' propagandists, demands for firings, purges and expulsions of the critics from their positions or denial of promotions or new appointments. In the face of any prominent critic calling into question the Lobby's role in shaping US policy to suit Israel's interests, the entire apparatus (from local Jewish federations, AIPAC, the Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations etc) go into action - smearing, insulting and stigmatizing the critics as 'anti-Semites'. By denying free speech and public debate through campaigns of calumny and real and threatened repercussions the Jewish Lobby has denied Americans one of their more basic freedoms and constitutional rights.
The massive, sustained and well-financed hate campaigns directed at any congressional candidate critical of Israel effectively eliminates free speech among the political elite. The overwhelming influence of wealthy Jewish contributors to both parties - but especially the Democrats - results in the effective screening out of any candidate who might question any part of the Lobby's Israel agenda. The takeover of Democratic campaign finance by two ultra-Zionist zealots, Senator Charles Schumer and Israeli-American Congressman Rahm Emanuel ensured that every candidate was totally subordinated to the Lobby's unconditional support of Israel. The result is that there is no Congressional debate, let alone investigation, over the key role of prominent Zionists in the Pentagon involved in fabricating reports on Iraq's 'weapons of mass destruction', and in designing and executing the war and the disastrous occupation policy. The Lobby's ideologues posing as Middle East 'experts' dominate the op-ed and editorial pages of all the major newspapers (Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post). In their pose as Middle East experts, they propagandize the Israeli line on the major television networks (CBS, NBC,ABC, Fox, and CNN) and their radio affiliates. The Lobby has played a prominent role in supporting and implementing highly repressive legislation like the Patriot Act and the Military Commission Act as well as modifying anti-corruption legislation to allow the Lobby to finance congressional 'educational' junkets to Israel. The head of Homeland Security with its over 150,000 functionaries and multi-billion dollar budget is none other than Zionist fanatic Michael Chertoff, head persecutor of Islamic charity organizations, Palestinian relief organizations and other ethnic Middle Eastern or Moslem constituencies in the US, which potentially might challenge the Lobby's pro-Israel agenda.
The biggest threat to democracy in its fullest sense of the word - the right to debate, to elect, to legislate free of coercion - is found in the organized efforts of the Zionist lobby, to repress public debate, control candidate selection and campaigning, direct repressive legislation and security agencies against electoral constituencies opposing the Lobby's agenda for Israel. No other lobby or political action group has as much sustained and direct influence over the political process - including the media, congressional debate and voting, candidate selection and financing of congressional allocation of foreign aid and Middle East agendas as the organized Zionist Power Configuration (ZPC) and its indirect spokespeople heading key Congressional positions. A first step toward reversing the erosion of our democratic freedoms is recognizing and publicly exposing the ZPC's nefarious organizational and financial activities and moving forward toward neutralizing their efforts.
Their Foreign Policy or Ours?
Intimately and directly related to the loss of democratic freedoms and a direct consequence of the Jewish lobby's influence over the political process is the making of US Middle East policy and who benefits from it. The entire political effort of the Lobby (its spending, ethnic baiting, censorship and travel junkets) is directed toward controlling US foreign policy and, through US power, to influence the policy of US allies, clients and adversaries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The Lobby's systematic curtailment of our democratic freedoms is intimately related to our own inability to influence our nation's foreign policy. Our majoritarian position against the Iraq War, the repudiation of the main executioner of the War (the White House) and our horror in the face of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and destruction of Gaza are totally neutralized by Zionist influence over Congressional and White House policymakers. The recently victorious Congressional Democrats repudiate their electorate and follow the advice and dictates of the pro-Zionist leadership (Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Rahm Emmanuel, Stephan Israel and others) by backing an escalation of troops and an increase in military spending for the war in Iraq. Bush follows the war policy against Iran proposed by the zealous Zionist fanatics in the American Enterprise Institute, repudiating the diplomatic proposals of the bi-partisan Baker Commission. Congress quadruples US arms stored in Israel (supposedly for dual use) in the aftermath of Israel's bombing of Southern Lebanon with one million anti-personnel bomblets from cluster bombs in direct defiance of US electoral opinion. While hundreds of millions of undernourished women and children suffer and die in Africa, Latin America and Asia, the Lobby ensures that over half of US foreign aid goes to Israeli Jews with per capita incomes of over $22,000 USD.
No other organized political action group or public relations firm acting on behalf of the Cuban and Venezuelan exiles or Arab, African, Chinese or European Union states comes remotely near the influence of the Zionist lobby in shaping US policy to serve the interest of Israel.
While the Lobby speaks for less than 2% of the US electorate, its influence on foreign policy far exceeds the great majority who have neither comparable organizational nor financial muscle to impose their views.
Never in the history of the US republic or empire has a powerful but tiny minority been able to wield so much influence in using out nation's military and economic power and diplomatic arm-twisting in the service of a foreign government. Neither the Francophiles during the American Revolution, the Anglophiles in the Civil War and the German Bund in the run-up to World War Two, nor the (anti-China) Nationalist Taiwan Lobby possessed the organizational power and sustained political influence that the ZPC has on US foreign and domestic policy at the service of the State of Israel.
Confronting the Lobby Matters
The question of the power of the Lobby over US policies of war or peace, authoritarianism or democracy and over who defines the interests served by US foreign policy obviously go far beyond the politics of the Middle East, the Israeli-colonial land grabs in Palestine and even the savage occupation of Iraq. The playing out of Zionist influence over the greatest military power in the world, with the most far-reaching set of client states, military bases, deadly weapons and decisive voice in international bodies (IMF/World Bank/United Nations Security Council) means that the Lobby has a means to leverage its reach in most regions of the world. This leverage power extends over a range of issues, from defending the fortunes of murderous Russian-Jewish gangster oligarchs, to bludgeoning European allies of the US to complicity with Israel's ethnic cleansing of Palestine.
The ZPC represents a basic threat to our existence as a sovereign state and our ability to influence whom we elect and what agendas and interests our representatives will pursue. Even worse, by serving Israeli interests, we are becoming complicit with a State whose Supreme Court legalizes political assassinations across national boundaries, torture, systematic violations of international law and a regime which repudiates United Nations resolutions and unilaterally invades and bombs its neighbors and practices military colonist expansionism. In a word Israel resonates and feeds into the most retrograde tendencies and brutal practices of contemporary American politics. In this sense the Lobby through its media, Congressional influence and think tanks is creating an Israeli look-alike. Like Israel, the US has established its own Pentagon assassination teams; like Israel, it invades and colonizes Iraq; like Israel, it violates and rejects any constitutional or international legal restraints and systematically tortures accused but untried prisoners.
Because of these fundamental considerations, we cannot oblige our Jewish 'progressive' colleagues and compatriots and refrain from confronting the Zionist Lobby with force and urgency. Too many of our freedoms are at stake; too little time is left before they succeed in securing a greater military escalation; too little of our sovereignty remains in the face of the concerted effort by the Lobby and its Middle Eastern 'expert-ideologues' to push and shove us into a new and more devastating war with Iran at the behest of Israel's pursuit of Middle East dominance.
No other country, abuser or not, of human rights, with or without electoral systems, has the influence over our domestic and foreign policy as does the state of Israel. No other Lobby has the kind of financial power and organizational reach as the Jewish Lobby in eroding our domestic political freedoms or our war-making powers. For those reasons alone, it stands to reason, that we American have a necessity to put our fight against Israel and its Lobby at the very top of our political agenda. It is not because Israel has the worst human rights agenda in the world - other states have even worst democratic credentials - but because of its role in promoting its US supporters to degrade our democratic principles, robbing us of our freedom to debate and our sovereignty to decide our own interests. The Lobby puts the military and budgetary resources of the Empire at the service of Greater Israel - and that results in the worst human rights in the world.
Democratic, just and peaceful responses to the Big Questions that face Americans, Europeans, Muslims, Jews and other peoples of the world passes through the defeat and dismantlement of the Israeli-directed Zionist Power Configuration in America. Nothing less will allow us to engage in an open debate on the alternatives to repression at home and imperialism abroad.
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Editorial: Gambling to Save Face on Iraq
December 25, 2006
by Rodrigue Tremblay
"Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but it is always a simple matter to drag the people along. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country."
Hermann Goering (1893-1946), SS Nazi leader
"Americans will speak of the battles like Fallujah. with the same awe and reverence that we now give to Guadalcanal and Iwo Jima."
President George W. Bush, November 10, 2006
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing but only after they've exhausted every other possibility."
Winston Churchill(1874-1965), former Prime Minister of England
Sometimes, when a snake tries to swallow a porcupine, it gets stuck in its throat and the predator has no choice but to spew it out. The neoconservative Bush-Cheney administration, under the pro-Israel Lobby's influence, thought that Iraq would be an easy meal, to be savored while doing an easy "cakewalk", in the words of neocon Ken Adelman: "I believe demolishing Hussein's military power and liberating Iraq would be a cakewalk." Now, the Bush-Cheney administration will spend the next two years it has left attempting to extricate itself from the morass they have brought upon Iraq and upon the United States.
According to departing U.N. General Secretary Kofi Annan, the U.S. is 'Trapped in Iraq', and faces a no-win situation. This is reminiscent of what former Secretary of State Colin Powel is reputed have said to George W. Bush before the military invasion of Iraq: "If you break it; you own it!" How long and after how many more deaths will this Iraq quagmire last? The geopolitical consequences of having a country like the United States trapped in Iraq are enormous. The Iraqi conflict is turning into another Vietnam war-like fiasco. Already, the Iraq war costs more in nominal terms than the Vietnam war and 58 percent of Americans now believe that George W. Bush led them into a new Vietnam-like mess.
Even though the 10-wise-persons Baker-Hamilton Commission has unanimously recommended that the U.S. terminate its open-ended presence in Iraq and begin its disengagement and “redeployment” from the country, and even though fewer than 30 percent of Americans approve Bush's policies in Iraq, you can bet the house that George W. Bush will not follow the recommendation of his father's advisors. Instead of beginning an orderly troop withdrawal in 2007, as recommended by the Baker-Hamilton Commission, G. W. Bush will rather gamble and raise the ante, and will risk turning Iraq into an even bigger mess than it is today. It's like Bush's SUV has got no reverse gear!
In a last attempt to salvage a losing and misguided enterprise, and deep in his continuous state of denial, Bush will throw good money after bad and will send thousands of additional American troops to "secure Baghdad" and give the impression of some stability in Iraq. In reality, Bush's "new approach" for Iraq may well have the consequence of enlarging the conflict, possibly bringing Iran, Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia into the inferno. In other words, the Neocon inspired Bush-Cheney team will do exactly the reverse of what the Baker-Hamilton Commission has recommended. No wonder former president George H. Bush is crying aloud in public.
The Bush-Cheney administration invaded a foreign country illegally and now thinks that its presence there has become indispensable. —That takes some gall. Trying to save face with "a last big push" to give the impression of “salvaging” the situation is not a real policy for solving the Iraqi mess. This will only perpetuate the on-going civil war in that country and pile up more deaths on the already high mountain of deaths. It is a cop-out, but sadly in line with what one would expect from a dysfunctional administration.
Rodrigue Tremblay lives in Montreal and can be reached at rodrigue.tremblay@yahoo.com
Also visit his blog site at www.thenewamericanempire.com/blog.
Author's Website: www.thenewamericanempire.com
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Editorial: Why did Russia and China vote to sanction Iran?
By Jorge Hirsch
12/26/06
Information Clearing House
In the aftermath of the Dec. 23 United Nations Security Council unanimous vote imposing sanctions or Iran for failing to suspend uranium enrichment (see text of resolution here), one has to wonder: why did Russia and China go along with it?
Iran's pursuit of uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear purposes is allowed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the IAEA has found no indication that Iran has diverted any nuclear material to military purposes. While Russia may prefer for its own reasons that Iran not enrich uranium, it fully recognizes that Iran's pursuit is legal under international law. Furthermore, as Western news media constantly emphasize, Russia and China have extensive commercial ties with Iran, hence it is not in their interest to antagonize Iran. Their support of UNSC1737 doesn't seem to make sense.
The UNSC vote is ominous because it allows Bush to cut and paste from his March 17th 2003 speech on the impending Iraq attack, substituting "q" for "n":
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The (Iraqi) Iranian regime has used diplomacy as a ploy to gain time and advantage. It has uniformly defied Security Council resolutions
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[The regime] has a deep hatred of America and our friends. And it has aided, trained and harbored terrorists, including operatives of al Qaeda. (see 9/11 commission report)
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Recognizing the threat to our country, the United States Congress voted overwhelmingly last year (to support the use of force against Iraq) to "hold the current regime in Iran accountable for its threatening behavior".
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America tried to work with the United Nations to address this threat because we wanted to resolve the issue peacefully.
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For the last four-and-a-half months, the United States and our allies have worked within the Security Council to enforce that Council's long-standing demands. Yet, some permanent members of the Security Council have publicly announced they will veto any resolution that compels (the disarmament of Iraq) the denuclearization of Iran. These governments share our assessment of the danger, but not our resolve to meet it.
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The United Nations Security Council has not lived up to its responsibilities, so we will rise to ours.
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Should (Saddam Hussein) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad choose confrontation, the American people can know that every measure has been taken to avoid war, and every measure will be taken to win it.
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[T]he only way to reduce the harm and duration of war is to apply the full force and might of our military, and we are prepared to do so.
In the case of Iran, this last statement would be especially ominous, because it would signal that the US will use nuclear weapons against Iran. Recall that Bush has explicitly refused to take the option of a US nuclear strike against Iran off the table.
Many other statements in the March 17th 2003 speech apply even better to Iran than they did to Iraq. "Inteligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised" was false, but that Iran is enriching uranium is true. Saddam could not disarm of weapons it didn't have, but Iran could bow to Bush's demand and stop its nuclear enrichment program, hence the statement that by refusing to do so it would be "choosing" war is somewhat less farfetched. Iran's alleged threats against Israel will undoubtedly be prominently featured in Bush's speeches defending military action against Iran.
Iran will not stop its enrichment program, certainly not as a precondition to negotiations. This should be obvious to Bush, as well as to Russia and China. Hence one must ask: why is Bush pursuing this approach, and why are Russia and China, albeit reluctantly, supporting it?
What are Bush's intentions toward Iran?
If Bush had any intention of reaching a negotiated agreement with Iran, he had plenty of opportunities to pursue such options, as recently detailed by Flynt Leverett (see complete article here) [pdf]. In the absence of any concession by the US, Iran will not submit to US demands, and weak sanctions resolutions do not exert any real pressure on Iran. This has been clear to many observers including this author for many months. The only rational explanation to understand the US push to pass resolutions against Iran, no matter how weak, is that its purpose is to lay the ground for planned military action.
If the intention is to attack Iran, it was important for Bush to have this UNSC resolution ( and the preceding one of July 31st) approved unanimously, that makes a demand on Iran that Iran will not meet, to provide a fig-leaf argument that "the world" demands action, as UNSC 1441 did in the case of Iraq.
Why did Russia and China support sanctions?
Russia and China could have chosen to veto the resolution, or at least abstain. Instead, after negotiating to water it down, they voted for sanctions. Why?
One could argue that they sincerely would prefer that Iran stops enriching uranium, permanently or at least temporarily, to defuse tensions. That may well be so. However, there has never been any indication that Iran would be inclined to stop enriching uranium if such sanctions are imposed, quite the contrary. These sanctions have essentially no effect on Iran, and Iran is in a position where it could live with even much stronger sanctions without much problem. So Iran's defiant reaction to the latest UN resolution was entirely predictable.
So I argue that Russia and China's vote is understandable only under the assumption that private discussions have been going on between them and the US. Their vote is understandable if in those private discussions:
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Bush strongly indicated that he would use military force if Russia and China didn't agree to support sanctions.
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Bush gave private assurances to Russia and China that he would not initiate military action against Iran without UNSC consent.
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Bush demanded that his private assurances remain private, arguing that making them public would underminde the diplomatic effort by reducing the pressure on Iran.
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Bush said that if his private assurances were made public deliberately or accidentally after the UNSC vote, they would no longer be binding.
A hint suggesting that such private assurances have been given is that Bush and Putin have publicly stressed the importance of a "unified position" on Iran. As long as there is a "unified position" Iran will not be attacked, because Putin would never agree to such a course of action.
Are Bush's private assurances believable?
I will not make a judgment of how trustworthy President Bush is. However I argue that the evidence clearly indicates that any private assurances given by Bush to Russia and China that he will not resort to military action against Iran without Security Council approval were only given to induce them to support the UN action, and that he has no intention of honoring them.
The reason is simply that there is no other way to understand what Bush's purpose is in the approach being pursued, other than to reach a diplomatic impasse and subsequently resort to military action. The more sanctions are imposed, the less inclined and the less likely Iran will be to engage in compromise.
On the other hand, any private and public assurances that Bush may have given Israel regarding US support of Israel against Iran are likely to be honored by Bush, with Congress' full support.
The final conditions for the impending military action are being rapidly put in place as we speak:
How will it get started? Either a Gulf-of-Tonkin-like incident, or an attack by Israel, or an incident in Iraq that will be blamed on Iran. Anything to provoke an Iranian response, argue "self-defense", and escalate the confrontation till it leads to taking out our big guns, nuclear weapons.
How can it be prevented?
As I and other authors have argued, a military confrontation with Iran is bound to lead to the US use of nuclear weapons. That is the only way the US can hope for "rapid and favorable war termination on US terms". In the absence of a "nuclear option" the US is highly unlikely to attack Iran because it would carry a huge military cost. However it should be clear to most rational people that a US use of nuclear weapons, no matter how small, against Iran would have disastrous consequences for the future of the world.
Consequently I argue that to prevent a military confrontation with Iran and facilitate a diplomatic solution it is essential to focus on getting the US nuclear option against Iran off the table.
Russia and China may already have privately assured Bush that a US use of nuclear weapons against Iran would not be acceptable to them under any circumstances, no matter what the "military necessity" or the "surprising military developments" are, and that any US preparations planning for contingency use like forward deployment of tactical nuclear weapons would not be acceptable to them. Russia and China may already have privately warned Bush of actions they may take in response to a US nuclear use against Iran, from diplomatic to economic to military. Russia and China could ask that Bush publicly takes the "nuclear option" off the table as a condition to support any further diplomatic action against Iran. The US nuclear option against Iran is not going to pressure Iran to abandon enrichment, quite the contrary, and taking it off the table would certainly help to defuse tension.
The newly elected democratic Congress could take the US nuclear option against Iran off the table. Congress could pass a law prohibiting the US military from using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states. Here is an example of such a bill. While the Constitution makes the President the "Commander in Chief", it assigns Congress the responsibility to "make rules for the government and regulation" of the armed forces. Hence Congress could pass a law removing the authority of Bush to order the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, unless Congress first declares Iran to be a nuclear power.
Members of Congress should bring this issue to the forefront of public attention, call for hearings and introduce bills addressing the US nuclear weapons use issue. Representative Dennis Kucinich has taken the lead by publicly calling for the US to renounce nuclear first-strike policy. Any private assurances that members of Congress may have been given regarding US plans for nuclear weapons deployment and use should be made public. The public has a right to know.
The US use of nuclear weapons against Iran will affect America for generations to come. It is the responsibility of every member of Congress to do everything possible to remove the possibility that such a momentous decision could be made singlehandedly by a President that has earned a record low approval rating. Just as "obeying orders" is no excuse under international law for committing illegal and immoral acts, each member of Congress will be fully responsible for choosing to ignore this issue.
Jorge Hirsch is a Professor of Physics at the University of California at San Diego, a fellow of the American Physical Society, and organizer of a recent petition, circulated among leading physicists, opposing the new nuclear weapons policies adopted by the US in the past 5 years. He is a frequent commentator on Iran and nuclear weapons. Email to: jorgehirsch@yahoo.com
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Framing Iran
Iraq and Iran protest US arrest of Iranian officials
AFP
23/12/2006
The Iraqi government has protested after US forces arrested a number of Iranian officials in Baghdad, allegedly because they were planning to incite attacks in the already war-torn country.
"Two people who were invited by the president to
Iraq have now been apprehended by the Americans, and the president is unhappy with the arrests," Hiwa Osman, President Jalal Talabani's media adviser, told AFP Monday.
"The invitation was within the framework of an agreement between Iran and Iraq to improve the security situation," he added.
It was not clear how many Iranian officials are still in US custody.
Osman confirmed two had been arrested, but the New York Times reported four were still being held even after two with diplomatic status had been released.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said: "A few days ago we became aware that US forces, contrary to international laws, had arrested Iranian diplomats who were invited by the Iraqi government.
"This action is not compatible with international law and it will have unpleasant consequences," he warned, according to the Mehr news agency.
Separately, leading Iraqi lawmaker and imam, Sheikh Jalal Eddin al-Saghir of the Baratha mosque, told AFP that two Iranian diplomats had been seized by US forces in Baghdad last Thursday, but were later released.
"Two diplomats from the Iranian embassy came to see me at the mosque to offer condolences on the death of my mother," he said.
"After they left the mosque and were travelling back to the embassy they were arrested by the Americans, with two of their guards. I don't know why. I later heard that they'd been released," he said.
Confirmation of arrests came after the New York Times, citing senior US officials, reported that several Iranians were detained by US forces in Iraq last week on suspicion of planning attacks on Iraqi troops.
"We continue to work with the government of Iraq on the status of the detainees," Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, told the New York Times, according to its report.
Iraq's national security adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie declined an AFP request for comment on the arrests, which the Times reported had put strain on the relationship between the Iraqi government and its American allies.
A spokesman for the US embassy in Baghdad also declined to comment.
US commanders in Iraq regularly accuse Iran of fomenting unrest in its troubled neighbour, but the Shiite-led Baghdad government has insisted on pursuing a policy of closer security ties with Tehran.
According to White House officials cited in the Times report, the Iranians include two "senior military officials" with links to an Iranian Revolutionary Guard unit which trains Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah guerrilla movement.
If US authorities produce evidence against the detainees it could be the first proof of their longstanding charge that Iranian agents are stirring violence in Iraq by arming and training illegal militias.
The arrests come amid mounting diplomatic tension between Iran, the United States and the international community, after the UN Security Council voted to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme.
In response to the vote, Iran defiantly vowed to start work immediately on drastically expanding its capacity to enrich uranium.
Washington accuses Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, a charge vehemently denied by the oil-rich Islamic republic, which says it only wants to provide atomic energy to a growing population.
Several of the Shiite parties that have risen to power in Iraq since the downfall of former dictator
Saddam Hussein have ties to Iran.
Shiite cleric Abdel Aziz Hakim's Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) was founded by Tehran to mobilise Iraqi exiles against their own government during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
Today, the movement is an important part of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's ruling coalition.
Comment: The US, the occupying force with over 140,000 troops in Iraq, is accusing Iran of "meddling"! And remarks like that aren't seen for the hypocrisy they are!!! So much for Iraqi sovereignty!
Such is the control of the US government in Iraq and the impotence of the "Iraq government", that when the Iraq president invites two Iranian politicians to Iraq, he can do nothing to stop US troops arresting the Iranian officials. But why has the US government taken this action?...
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U.S. investigating Iranians detained in Iraq
Malaysia Sun
Tuesday 26th December, 2006
The White House says the detention in Baghdad of several Iranians suspected of inciting attacks against Iraqi troops validates the U.S. claim of Iranian meddling in Iraq.
A spokesman said Monday U.S. officials want to finish their investigation of the detained Iranians before characterizing their activities.
He said two detainees with diplomatic immunity were handed over to Iraqi authorities, and that U.S. officials are working with Iraq's government on the status of the remaining ones.
U.S. forces in Baghdad detained several Iranians in raids last week.
Iraqi officials say President Jalal Talabani had invited two of the Iranians to the capital, and that he was unhappy American forces had detained them.
The New York Times reported that at least four Iranians remain in U.S. custody, and that the U.S. says they are senior Iranian military officials.
The United States has accused Iranian agents of stirring up sectarian violence in Iraq by arming and training Shi'ite militias. Tehran says it only has political and religious links with Iraqi Shi'ites.
In other news, British troops killed seven gunmen and demolished an Iraqi police station in the southern city of Basra early Monday to stop rogue officers from using the site to commit crimes.
In Baghdad, Iraqi police say a car bomb exploded in a mainly Shi'ite neighborhood, killing at least 10 people.
Comment: There you have it, straight from the horse's mouth. "Onward Christian soldiers!" Of course, no one in the mainstream media will ask how the presence of the Iranian officials in Iraq could constitute evidence that Iran is involved in attacks on US troops in Iraq when the Iranian officials were invited to Iraq by the Iraqi president, because that is called entrapment, and everyone knows that the US government does not engage in such disreputable behavior.
Of course, it is no coincidence that this abduction of Iranian officials in Iraq comes at about the same time that the US government ordered Iran to pay $254 million for allegedly carrying out the Khobar towers bombing in Saudi Arabia in 1996, in which 19 US service men were killed...
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Propaganda Alert! Iran ordered to pay $254 million in Khobar Towers bombing
Fri Dec 22, 2006
Reuters
WASHINGTON - A U.S. federal judge on Friday ordered the Islamic Republic of Iran to pay $254 million to the family of 17 U.S. servicemen killed in the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers residence at a U.S. military base in Saudi Arabia.
The default judgment was entered against the Iranian government, its security ministry and the Revolutionary Guards after they failed to respond to the lawsuit, which was initiated more than four years ago.
In issuing the $254.4 million judgment in the case, U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth concluded that the Khobar Towers attack was carried out by people recruited by Gen. Ahmed Sharifi of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The truck bomb involved in the attack was assembled at a base in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley operated by Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards, and the attack was approved by Ayatollah Khameini, the supreme leader of Iran, the 209-page ruling found.
The decision relied heavily on an investigation of the attack by the FBI under director Louis Freeh. The FBI probe led to the grand jury indictment of 13 members of Hezbollah in June 21, 2001.
"The totality of the evidence at trial, combined with the findings and conclusions entered by this court ... firmly establishes that the Khobar Towers bombing was planned, funded and sponsored by senior leadership in the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Lamberth wrote.
"The sheer gravity and nature of the attack demonstrate the defendants' unlawful intent to inflict severe emotional distress upon the American servicemen as well as their close relatives," he added.
The bombing of Khobar Towers, a residence on a U.S. military base in Dhahran, killed a total of 19 servicemen.
Comment: Attacks on American interests in the 1990s by "Islamic terrorists" also included the bombing of the WTC, the bombing of the USS Cole and the embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya. All of these were blamed on "al-Qaeda" while the Khobar Towers attack has now been categorically laid at the door of Iran (with a little help from Hizb'allh juts for good measure). Of course, the US and Israeli governments would have us believe that there is no difference between these groups, that they are all interwoven in a scary web of evil.
By now readers should be aware that most "Islamic terrorist" attacks over the past 15 years were the work of Israeli or American intelligence agencies (or a combination of both). All "al-Qaeda" attacks are in fact self-inflicted wounds by the aforementioned intelligence agencies in order to justify American and Israeli aggression in the Middle East. This is a simple and very logical theory and is backed up by a wealth of evidence that is deliberately ignored by the mainstream media.
The Khobar Towers "truck bombing" bears all the hallmarks of an Israeli Mossad operation, the Mossad having an extensive network of agents in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi regime long ago having sold its soul (if it ever had one) to US-Israeli interests in the Middle East.
The mainstream media is asserting that the Judge Royce Lamberth's ruling that Iran is to blame is the first time a branch of the U.S. government has officially blamed Iran for the deaths of Americans at Khobar. In reality however, the investigation into the Khobar towers attacks by then FBI director Louis Freeh (more or less a self-investigation) established long ago that Iran was to be the chosen fall-guy for the attack. In an indictment filed by the Justice Department in 2001, though it does not name specific Iranian officials, alleges Iranian direction of, and logistical support for, the attack - and notes that conspirators stated that the purpose of the attack was to strike the United States on behalf of Iran.
So why is this "indictment" being published now by the US government and its media complete with carefully chosen words and carefully chosen omissions about the reality of the case?
You already know the answer. There will be war with Iran in 2007, by hook or by crook ... or should that be by a bunch of crooks...
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Iran's claim to need nuclear power may be genuine
Reuters
26/12/2006
, given that it could run out of oil to export as soon as eight years from now, according to an analysis published on Tuesday by the National Academy of Sciences.
The study's author, Roger Stern, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, said investment in Iranian oil production had been inadequate to offset oil field declines and the explosive growth in domestic demand.
"I'm not saying that Iran will have no oil in eight years," Stern said in a telephone interview. "I'm saying that they will be using all of it for themselves."
The analysis, published in the latest issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said the Iranian government could become "politically vulnerable" from declining exports.
Oil exports account for about 70 percent of Iranian government revenue, said Stern, of the university's department of geography and environmental engineering.
He projected that in five years, Iranian oil exports may be less than half their present level, and could drop to zero by 2015.
"It therefore seems possible that Iran's claim to need nuclear power might be genuine, an indicator of distress from anticipated export revenue shortfalls," he wrote. "If so, the Iranian regime may be more vulnerable than is presently understood."
Iran has vowed to boost its uranium enrichment drive despite new U.N. sanctions approved on Saturday aimed at rolling back a nuclear program that the West fears is a prelude to atomic weapons.
Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns called on Japan, Europe, Russia and China to stop "business as usual" with Iran "to drive up the cost to the Iranians of essentially doing what they're doing" with uranium enrichment.
Comment: So no need for war, right?
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Iran backed dangerously into a corner
By Linda S. Heard
12/25/06 "Gulf News"
American and Israeli machinations have once more put this region under threat. Following months of barking from Bolton the bulldog the United Nations Security Council has unanimously passed a resolution designed to slow the Iranian nuclear programme.
It isn't as comprehensive as the former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton and his masters would have liked, concentrating, as it does, on banning the import and export of nuclear-related materials and freezing the assets of certain companies, but it's the best he could prize out of reluctant China and Russia.
Moscow held out the longest and only caved in after a call made by George W. Bush to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. One is driven to wonder about other topics discussed: Russia's proposed WTO membership, perhaps?
Israel is ecstatic at this rap over the knuckles and the Bush administration is already touting the resolution as a positive first step towards comprehensive sanctions.
For Iraq watchers this is déj vu. Here we go again. Another of the region's main players becomes an official pariah, scolded and condemned for enriching uranium, which it has an inalienable right to do under Article 4 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Another, Israel, overturned its policy of nuclear ambiguity when its prime minister inadvertently admitted his country's capability and the so-called international community plays deaf and dumb.
Iran has responded predictably to the sanctions. The country's authorised nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said Iran is even more set on realising its nuclear aims than before while Foreign Minister Mohammad Ali Hussaini vows to revise Iran's relationship with the international nuclear watchdog the IAEA. Plus there is talk that Iran may expel the ambassadors of nations with a seat on the UNSC.
In other words, instead of opening up, Iran feels unfairly singled out and under siege. It's little wonder, therefore, that it's poised to withdraw further into its own shell and accelerate its nuclear programme with the addition of 52,000 centrifuges.
In the meantime, Britain's Tony Blair has become an expert flip-flopper.
Just a few weeks ago he was advocating unconditional direct talks with Iran but then he went to Washington where he was assigned a new message: Iran is the obstacle to peace in the Middle East by supporting terrorists in Iraq, attempting to oust Lebanon's democratically-elected government, and denying the Holocaust.
Moderate Muslim states should unite in combating extremist regimes, such as Iran's, Blair said.
Final leg
Blair neglected to mention that like Iraq during the final leg of Saddam's tenure Iran has begun selling its oil in euros, thus undermining the petrodollar.
In the meantime, the US and Britain are moving warships to the Gulf to join the aircraft carrier Eisenhower and the US is set to send more troops to neighbouring Iraq, despite General John Abizaid's insistence that more isn't necessary. This is naked aggression with the possibility of a disastrous outcome - yet another all out war.
Right-wing Israeli elements that view Tehran as an existential threat have been pushing for a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities for some time, warning that if the US doesn't move Israel might do the job itself. The US Vice-President Dick Cheney has made similar warning noises in the past.
Scott Ritter, a former UN weapons inspector turned peace activist and author of Target Iran: The Truth about the White House's plans for regime change believes there is no evidence to suggest Iran is pursuing anything other than a nuclear programme for civilian purposes.
He suggests both CIA and Mossad agents are swarming all over Iran but have been unable to unearth any proof of nefarious activity other than deep underground tunnels.
During a conversation with investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, broadcast on Democracy Now, Ritter puts Washington's anti-Iran sabre-rattling down to a nexus between the neoconservatives and the right-wing of Israel's Likud Party.
As occurred in Iraq, Ritter says the White House is hyping the Iranian nuclear peril as an excuse for its real neoconservative-inspired goal regime change as part of the broader pursuit of global hegemony.
Unfortunately, the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has played right into the hands of his enemies with his anti-Israeli rhetoric that gave grist to the Bush administration's mill when negotiating the UNSC Resolution.
Israeli and right-wing American spokespeople are working the "wipe Israel off the map" statement as hard as they can as "evidence" that Israel is seriously menaced. It's ironic that while Iran does not possess that kind of capability Israel does and showed its willingness to use it in 1973 and 1991 when the country was on nuclear alert.
If either the US and its allies or Israel decides to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, comparisons with Iraq will end there. The sectarian conflict that has possessed Iraq will likely ignite the entire region where nations will be asked to take sides. Worse, in some cases public sentiments and governmental policies could deviate.
Washington and Tel Aviv, aided by London, are taking this region on a collision course. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa once warned that the invasion of Iraq would open the gates to Hell.
They opened alright but if there is war with Iran they may take a long time to swing shut.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com
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Blair was dangerously off target in his condemnation of Iran
Sunday December 24, 2006
The Observer
Two things occurred last week, apparently unconnected. In the first, Tony Blair, at the end of his tour of the Middle East and the Gulf, issued a thunderous denunciation in Dubai of the 'threat' posed by Iran. He painted a scary picture. (Doesn't he always?)
Iran, he said, was 'at war' with the 'moderate' Arab world and Western forces trying to bring peace and stability to the region. If it was not for evil Iran, Blair implied, Iraq and Afghanistan could become holiday hotspots for tourists, following the example set by Dubai, which has had more than a million British visitors this year. Iran at war with the Arab world? The last statesman who framed it in that ugly context was ... Saddam Hussein.
The second event was unconnected, but only in the Prime Minister's mind. Iran held local elections and polls for the influential Council of Experts. Elections. That democracy thing that Blair and President George W Bush keep saying they intend to deliver to our poor benighted Arab and Persian brethren.
And as the results emerged, it was clear that ultra-conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - he of the Holocaust denials and alleged nuclear ambitions - had been given a trouncing. In cities such as Shiraz and Bandar Abbas, not a single pro-Ahmadinejad candidate won a council seat. In Tehran, too, candidates supporting Mayor Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, a moderate conservative, won seven of 15 council seats, while reformists were set to win four. Which has left Ahmadinejad loyalists with only three seats.
Anti-Ahmadinejad sentiment was visible in elections for the Council of Experts - 86 clerics who monitor Iran's supreme leader and choose his successor. There, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani polled the most votes of any Tehran candidate to win re-election to the assembly. Also re-elected was Hasan Rowhani, Iran's former nuclear negotiator whom Ahmadinejad has accused of making too many concessions to the Europeans.
So what will Blair's comments have achieved? Certainly they will not have bolstered Iranians like the students who recently heckled Ahmadinejad for his poor record on jobs and confrontational attitude to the West. Instead, Blair's comments fit precisely into Ahmadinejad's narrative of 'them and us'.
And what happened to Downing Street's insistence barely two weeks before that we should be talking to Iran about Iraq? It was rejected by George Bush. So apparently it has been forgotten.
None of this is to say that there are not problems over Iran. Its tutelage of the increasingly powerful Shia crescent has sometimes seemed disruptive for the hell of it - in Iraq and Lebanon in particular.
But is it a war on 'moderate' Arabs, or is it that the Tehran leadership - to which Shias look - has yet to mature into something more politically responsible as Iran becomes a regional power? It may indeed be maturing: Iran appears, over Iraq at least, belatedly to be recognising that the last thing it needs as a neighbour is a failed state and a proxy war with Saudi Arabia.
Others have been asking these questions. Not Tony Blair.
But then Blair's performance in Dubai was the inept conclusion to a clumsy trip that seemed to break the fundamental rule of prime ministerial diplomacy - only to go on these kinds of tours when there is something to achieve.
Instead, Blair blundered round without much purpose. He met a cool welcome in Egypt and later a rebuke from Turkey over Palestine.
And if his trip was calculated to prove to Muslims, particularly at home, that Britain does care about the plight of Palestinians, that too spectacularly backfired.
Whatever you think about Hamas and its victory in the Palestinian elections in January, it won fairly in elections that the West insisted on. And while the Arab street has equally mixed views about Hamas, it also sees the hypocrisy of insisting on Arab democracy, then undermining the result and offering to support the losing party in something close to civil conflict.
All of which leads one to conclude that something pretty terrible has happened to British diplomacy.
As Downing Street has further and further encroached on Foreign Office territory, we have been left not so much with a foreign policy that has been thought through, but a policy made by hunches and 'feel-good' ideas on the Number 10 sofas. All of them have been designed, it would appear, to bolster the reputation of a lame-duck Prime Minister in his last months in office.
As Blair has travelled to Washington and to the Middle East, his journeys increasingly have been accompanied by the sense that no one - in the White House, Turkey, Tel Aviv or in the Arab world - much listens or cares what he thinks or does these days.
Comment: So what is the conclusion? Blair is not interested in finding a peaceful solution to the Iran "crisis". He, like Olmert, Bush and the Neocons, want war.
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UN sanctions hit Iran after call by Bush
Peter Beaumont and Robert Tait in Tehran
Sunday December 24, 2006
The Observer
The UN Security Council unanimously approved a tough resolution yesterday evening authorising sanctions against Iran for refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, bringing to an end two months of often fractious negotiations aimed at pressuring Tehran to clarify its nuclear ambitions.
The resolution orders all countries to ban the supply of specified materials and technology that could contribute to Iran's nuclear and missile programmes. It also imposes an asset freeze on key companies and individuals involved in the programmes named on a UN list.
The resolution did not include a full travel ban which the US, in particular, had been seeking on individuals involved in Iran's nuclear programme. Instead states have been asked to inform the Security Council of movements across their borders by named individuals on the list. Diplomatic sources told The Observer last night that it should be seen as an interim step towards a full travel ban if Iran fails to comply.
'There has obviously been a lot of horse-trading and conversations between experts up to heads of state. This is an interim measure that would allow us to go back and seek further sanctions in future if Iran fails to comply,' a source said last night.
The final breakthrough came after a telephone call yesterday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President George Bush to break the deadlock on the Security Council.
The unanimous vote took place as the US warned 'it would not hesitate to return to this body to seek further action should Iran fail to comply'.
Iran's Foreign ministry immediately condemned the Security Council decision as illegal. Earlier in the day Iran had warned that it would reconsider its relationship with the UN and, in particular, its commitments to the UN International Atomic Energy Agency if sanctions were imposed. Mohammad Ali Hosseini, a Foreign ministry spokesman, told state-run television that the resolution 'cannot affect or limit Iran's peaceful nuclear activities, but will discredit the decisions of the Security Council, whose power is deteriorating'.
The resolution was immediately welcomed by Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, who said Iran now faced a critical choice. Beckett said: 'Today's resolution marks an important moment. Iran faces a choice, between a route that allows it to develop a modern civil nuclear power programme and brings many benefits to its people, or further defiance and the costs of isolation. I hope it will choose the positive path.'
Until the last moments before the vote, it was not clear whether all 15 Security Council members would support the resolution.
Until now Russia had expressed severe reservations over imposing sanctions on Iran and had attempted to persuade the regime in Tehran to help dispel international suspicions over the nature of its nuclear programme that Iran has insisted is peaceful. Iran has made its position more difficult in recent months following comments by hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently threatening Israel.
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Iran says to maintain oil export even sanctioned
www.chinaview.cn 2006-12-26 19:29:00
TEHRAN, Dec. 26 (Xinhua) -- Iran promised Tuesday that it would still maintain the current oil export to the world market though the UN Security Council decided last Saturday to sanction against Tehran's nuclear program, local Fars news agency reported.
Oil Minister Seyed Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh was quoted as saying that though Iran lived under sanctions, the world "should not be worried about the free flow and export of Iran's oil to the world markets because we are doing normal transactions as before and we will even embark on signing new contracts as well."
"They (global oil consumers) don't have to worry because theyare one of the two decision-making parties in such transactions and they can prevent adoption of irrelevant decisions," Hamaneh stressed, adding the UN decision would have no impact on Iran'soil industry and exports.
The top oil official, meanwhile, vowed that "when necessary, the country will use any kind of weapon to defend itself, the ruling system has decided not to give in to pressures and force, and as a part of this system the oil ministry will do everything possible to pursue the government's policies."
Iran is the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the fourth largest oil producer in the world.
The UN Security Council on Saturday adopted unanimously the resolution 1737, demanding that Iran "suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, and work on all heavy water-related projects."
The resolution also called on all states to impose a ban on trade with Iran in goods related to its nuclear programs and ballistic missile delivery systems, while freezing the funds, other financial assets and economic resources owned or controlled by officials and companies in Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
Shortly after the adoption, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement lashing out at the resolution as an "illegal measure."
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Gov't backs bill on revising relations with IAEA: FM
Tehran, Dec 26, IRNA
The government supports a bill to revise Iran's relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently under review by the Majlis, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said here Tuesday.
Mottaki made the remark at the end of Majlis session held Tuesday behind closed doors.
The minister attended the session to brief MPs on the latest developments with respect to Iran's nuclear case and the 1737 UN Security Council resolution adopted Saturday.
"I should have given information to the Majlis deputies on nuclear issues," he said.
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U.N. Resolution on Iran Does Not Hurt Russian Commercial Interests - Foreign Minister
Created: 25.12.2006 15:36 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 12:59 MSK
MosNews
Russia's foreign minister on Monday hailed the U.N. Security Council's resolution that imposed sanctions on Iran, the Associated Press news agency reported.
Sergey Lavrov said the resolution approved unanimously over the weekend was a compromise that would allow diplomatic efforts to continue.
"The resolution fully reflects economic interests of Russia and other partners of Iran," Lavrov said at a Cabinet session chaired by President Vladimir Putin, according to the ITAR-Tass, Interfax and RIA Novosti news agencies.
He emphasized that the resolution allowed the fulfillment of all contracts signed prior to its passage. Russia is building a nuclear power plant in the Iranian port of Bushehr, which is set to come on line next fall, and it demanded that both the plant and the nuclear fuel intended for it be exempt from sanctions.
The resolution orders all countries to stop supplying Iran with materials and technology that could contribute to its nuclear and missile programs and also freezes assets of related Iranian companies and individuals.
The U.S. administration had pushed for tougher penalties, but Russia and China, which both have strong commercial ties to Tehran, balked. To get their votes, the resolution dropped a ban on international travel by Iranian officials involved in nuclear and missile development and specified the banned items and technologies.
Iran insists its nuclear program is aimed solely at the peaceful production of nuclear energy, but the U.S. and European nations suspect that it serves as a cover to produce nuclear weapons.
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3000 Centrifuges To Become Operational "soon" - Iran
02:19 PM, December 26th 2006
by News Staff
Iran claimed Tuesday that 3000 centrifuges would "soon" become operational, the Fars news agency reported.
Member of parliament (MP) Ali Asgari said that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki delivered the information to the deputies in a closed-door session.
Iran has so far succeeded in operating two cascades of 164 centrifuges each at the uranium enrichment plant of Natanz plant in central Iran and increasing the number to 3,000 would be a major step for the country towards enrichment at industrial scale.
The MP added that Mottaki and the deputies discussed the pros and cons of revising the governmental cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the MPs rejected adopting "political considerations".
"Any concession would just encourage the West to increase its demands and the MPs therefore spoke in favour of resistance and decisiveness," Asgari said.
According to the report, some of the MPs asked the foreign minister why the government did not avail itself of the experience of former presidents Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami.
The factions of the two ex-presidents have formed a coalition of moderates and reformists and gained victory in the Experts Assembly, municipality and parliamentary by-elections held on December 15.
Although both Rafsanjani and Khatami support Iran's right to pursue nuclear technology, they oppose the uncompromising policies of current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in this regard.
Mottaki on Tuesday discussed in a closed-door parliamentary session the next steps to be taken following United Nations Security Council resolution 1737 which imposes sanctions against Tehran for defying suspension of its uranium enrichment programmes, the news network Khabar reported.
After the session, Mottaki told reporters that the government would approve the probable parliamentary bill obliging the government to revise cooperation with the IAEA as a sign of Iran's protest to the UN resolution.
The deputy of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Saeidi, however told Khabar on Monday that all nuclear programmes would stay under IAEA supervision.
Observers say that even if the parliament approved the bill, it would be a symbolic gesture rather than seriously binding the government as the nuclear issue is regarded in Iran as "state-matter" which means that it is decided at the highest level and in line with national interests.
According to the Iranian constitution, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all state affairs, including the nuclear issue, and could anytime overrule governmental and parliamentary decisions.
President Ahmadinejad has termed the UN resolution as "solely a piece of paper" that would not stop Iran's nuclear programmes but observers believe that despite the harsh rhetoric, Tehran was still seeking resumption of negotiations with the West through its allies China and Russia.
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Iraq Through US Eyes
Congressman Hayes Says Win Iraq By "Spreading The Message of Jesus Christ" There
12/20/2006
Blue NC
Robin Hayes has the solution to the Iraq war: have our soldiers convert all Muslims to Christianity.
Having won the election by only a hair's width and almost getting himself kicked out of Congress seems to have had some profound psychological effects on poor Mr. Hayes. A speech that flip-floppin' Robin gave last week at the Concord Rotary Club seems to prove he has finally gone off the deep end.
Our local weekly newspaper the "Concord Standard and Mount Pleasant Times" reported on Mr. Hayes speech in his hometown:
First